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📊 Prediction Accuracy
43.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Pennsylvania2.68+4.22vs Predicted
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2University of Virginia3.01+2.37vs Predicted
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3Cornell University2.32+3.43vs Predicted
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4Fordham University2.82+1.01vs Predicted
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5Rochester Institute of Technology2.00+2.41vs Predicted
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6Ocean County College1.73+2.42vs Predicted
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7Queen's University1.79+1.22vs Predicted
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8George Washington University1.35+1.45vs Predicted
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9Monmouth University1.95-1.44vs Predicted
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10St. John's College1.42-0.57vs Predicted
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11Columbia University2.43-4.94vs Predicted
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12Stevens Institute of Technology2.02-4.58vs Predicted
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13American University-0.13+0.36vs Predicted
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16William and Mary1.27-6.31vs Predicted
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17Colgate University-1.39-1.83vs Predicted
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18Princeton University0.21-5.20vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.22University of Pennsylvania2.680.1%1st Place
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4.37University of Virginia3.010.2%1st Place
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6.43Cornell University2.320.1%1st Place
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5.01Fordham University2.820.1%1st Place
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7.41Rochester Institute of Technology2.000.1%1st Place
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8.42Ocean County College1.730.0%1st Place
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8.22Queen's University1.790.1%1st Place
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9.45George Washington University1.350.0%1st Place
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7.56Monmouth University1.950.1%1st Place
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9.43St. John's College1.420.0%1st Place
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6.06Columbia University2.430.1%1st Place
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7.42Stevens Institute of Technology2.020.1%1st Place
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13.36American University-0.130.0%1st Place
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9.69William and Mary1.270.0%1st Place
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15.17Colgate University-1.390.0%1st Place
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12.8Princeton University0.210.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Russom | 11.5% | 13.9% | 11.5% | 11.4% | 10.2% | 9.0% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Stessing | 18.9% | 14.5% | 13.3% | 12.0% | 9.3% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 5.6% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Blair Davis | 7.9% | 8.3% | 10.1% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 7.4% | 9.9% | 10.0% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Graham Gardner | 12.8% | 13.0% | 11.5% | 11.6% | 12.0% | 9.4% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nick Troche | 5.5% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 6.0% | 3.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Zachary Schippe | 4.0% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 9.4% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 2.1% | 0.3% |
| Charles Legge | 5.2% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 9.0% | 9.4% | 10.1% | 4.8% | 1.5% | 0.0% |
| Julia Gardner | 3.0% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 11.0% | 11.7% | 12.0% | 10.2% | 4.8% | 0.1% |
| Paul Stevens | 5.3% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 9.6% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 0.3% |
| Evgenia Olimpieva | 3.7% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 9.4% | 10.5% | 11.2% | 12.3% | 8.9% | 4.5% | 0.6% |
| Irene Jacqz | 11.0% | 8.4% | 9.4% | 10.2% | 7.1% | 10.2% | 7.6% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Christian Geary | 6.4% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 9.4% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 6.1% | 9.0% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Noel Klingler | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 7.4% | 18.1% | 36.1% | 14.9% |
| Jonathan Conway | 3.6% | 2.3% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 8.6% | 10.0% | 10.7% | 12.2% | 11.6% | 5.0% | 1.0% |
| Sara Winkelman | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 5.0% | 13.8% | 72.4% |
| Anthony Pappenfus | 0.6% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 7.0% | 10.5% | 21.0% | 28.3% | 10.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.