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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
4.1
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.13+7.37vs Predicted
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2Boston College2.58+5.01vs Predicted
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3College of Charleston2.38+4.15vs Predicted
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4University of Pennsylvania1.77+4.48vs Predicted
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5Yale University2.85+0.28vs Predicted
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6Tufts University1.27+4.54vs Predicted
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7U. S. Naval Academy2.28+0.14vs Predicted
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8Boston University1.07+5.08vs Predicted
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9Roger Williams University2.40-2.00vs Predicted
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10University of Michigan-0.26+5.52vs Predicted
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11Northeastern University1.26+0.53vs Predicted
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12Stanford University2.89-7.23vs Predicted
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13Bowdoin College2.06-5.63vs Predicted
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14Fordham University1.54-3.58vs Predicted
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15U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.29-1.36vs Predicted
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16Brown University2.22-6.97vs Predicted
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17Jacksonville University1.70-7.56vs Predicted
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18SUNY Maritime College-0.13-2.76vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.37Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.135.7%1st Place
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7.01Boston College2.588.2%1st Place
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7.15College of Charleston2.388.2%1st Place
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8.48University of Pennsylvania1.775.8%1st Place
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5.28Yale University2.8513.2%1st Place
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10.54Tufts University1.272.8%1st Place
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7.14U. S. Naval Academy2.286.9%1st Place
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13.08Boston University1.071.4%1st Place
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7.0Roger Williams University2.408.5%1st Place
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15.52University of Michigan-0.260.8%1st Place
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11.53Northeastern University1.261.9%1st Place
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4.77Stanford University2.8915.0%1st Place
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7.37Bowdoin College2.068.2%1st Place
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10.42Fordham University1.543.6%1st Place
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13.64U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.291.5%1st Place
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9.03Brown University2.223.8%1st Place
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9.44Jacksonville University1.703.8%1st Place
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15.24SUNY Maritime College-0.130.9%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JJ Klempen | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 2.9% | 1.3% | 0.1% |
| Peter Busch | 8.2% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Benjamin Dufour | 8.2% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Sofia Segalla | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 5.1% | 2.5% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Stephan Baker | 13.2% | 12.9% | 10.9% | 11.2% | 9.4% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Wyatt Bischoff | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 9.8% | 7.3% | 4.6% | 1.5% |
| Jack Welburn | 6.9% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Porter Bell | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 9.3% | 11.8% | 15.3% | 14.9% | 8.6% |
| Kyle Pfrang | 8.5% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Jack Hammett | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 8.2% | 10.5% | 21.4% | 37.0% |
| Sam Monaghan | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 9.4% | 10.3% | 11.5% | 7.5% | 3.0% |
| Reade Decker | 15.0% | 13.6% | 14.2% | 10.1% | 11.6% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sam Bonauto | 8.2% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Lucas Thress | 3.6% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 4.7% | 1.4% |
| Annika VanderHorst | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 7.1% | 10.4% | 16.4% | 17.9% | 13.7% |
| Mason Stang | 3.8% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 0.5% |
| Patrick Igoe | 3.8% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 2.2% | 0.9% |
| Luke Barker | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 7.5% | 12.7% | 20.9% | 33.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.