← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Brown University3.48+7.42vs Predicted
-
2Yale University4.24+3.44vs Predicted
-
3U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.45+5.51vs Predicted
-
4University of Rhode Island3.37+4.49vs Predicted
-
5Boston College3.73+2.12vs Predicted
-
6Boston University2.91+4.47vs Predicted
-
7Tufts University2.82+3.82vs Predicted
-
8Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.77-1.06vs Predicted
-
9Connecticut College3.21+0.19vs Predicted
-
10Roger Williams University3.77-2.74vs Predicted
-
11Bowdoin College3.56-3.07vs Predicted
-
12Harvard University3.60-3.93vs Predicted
-
13Massachusetts Maritime Academy2.24-0.11vs Predicted
-
14Salve Regina University2.21-1.17vs Predicted
-
15Dartmouth College3.53-7.10vs Predicted
-
16University of Vermont2.70-4.62vs Predicted
-
17Middlebury College1.26-1.18vs Predicted
-
18Northeastern University2.60-6.49vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
8.42Brown University3.480.1%1st Place
-
5.44Yale University4.240.1%1st Place
-
8.51U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.450.1%1st Place
-
8.49University of Rhode Island3.370.1%1st Place
-
7.12Boston College3.730.1%1st Place
-
10.47Boston University2.910.0%1st Place
-
10.82Tufts University2.820.0%1st Place
-
6.94Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.770.1%1st Place
-
9.19Connecticut College3.210.0%1st Place
-
7.26Roger Williams University3.770.1%1st Place
-
7.93Bowdoin College3.560.1%1st Place
-
8.07Harvard University3.600.1%1st Place
-
12.89Massachusetts Maritime Academy2.240.0%1st Place
-
12.83Salve Regina University2.210.0%1st Place
-
7.9Dartmouth College3.530.1%1st Place
-
11.38University of Vermont2.700.0%1st Place
-
15.82Middlebury College1.260.0%1st Place
-
11.51Northeastern University2.600.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Shanahan | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 0.5% |
| Nicholas Baird | 11.0% | 12.9% | 11.3% | 12.3% | 9.6% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Dana Rohde | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 3.7% | 1.5% | 0.3% |
| Sarah Hermus | 5.4% | 6.6% | 8.8% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 2.8% | 1.0% |
| Charles Sinks | 8.8% | 10.5% | 6.7% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 0.2% |
| Josh Dochoda | 4.0% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 8.4% | 6.4% | 3.3% |
| Jack Bitney | 4.0% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 9.5% | 10.3% | 6.9% | 3.9% |
| Ty Ingram | 8.9% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Hugh MacGillivray | 4.3% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 2.7% | 1.4% |
| Mackenzie Bryan | 9.4% | 6.1% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Matthew Kaplan | 7.2% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 8.3% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 0.5% |
| Nick Sertl | 7.2% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 4.7% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 0.6% |
| Frank Reeg | 2.2% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 6.2% | 9.9% | 11.4% | 17.0% | 13.0% |
| Sean Beaulieu | 2.2% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 9.9% | 12.6% | 16.3% | 11.6% |
| Christopher Williford | 7.3% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 0.2% |
| Jan Kite-Powell | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 5.4% |
| Alexander Baskin | 0.7% | 0.4% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 2.6% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 7.3% | 15.6% | 51.9% |
| Jackson Hamilton | 3.2% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 9.0% | 7.3% | 10.3% | 9.7% | 9.5% | 5.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.