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📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1California Poly Maritime Academy3.79+3.15vs Predicted
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2Stanford University3.50+2.85vs Predicted
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3Stanford University3.98+0.73vs Predicted
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4Stanford University4.21-0.73vs Predicted
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5University of California at Davis2.13+3.70vs Predicted
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6Stanford University3.080.00vs Predicted
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7Cal Poly University S.L.O.2.85-0.38vs Predicted
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8Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.64+2.05vs Predicted
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9University of California at Berkeley2.60-1.69vs Predicted
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10University of California at Davis0.12+3.37vs Predicted
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11California State University Monterey Bay2.30-2.78vs Predicted
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12University of California at Berkeley1.57-1.57vs Predicted
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13California State University Monterey Bay1.35-2.04vs Predicted
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14California State University Monterey Bay0.32-0.99vs Predicted
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15University of California at Santa Cruz1.87-5.68vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.15California Poly Maritime Academy3.790.2%1st Place
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4.85Stanford University3.500.1%1st Place
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3.73Stanford University3.980.2%1st Place
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3.27Stanford University4.210.2%1st Place
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8.7University of California at Davis2.130.0%1st Place
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6.0Stanford University3.080.1%1st Place
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6.62Cal Poly University S.L.O.2.850.1%1st Place
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10.05Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.640.0%1st Place
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7.31University of California at Berkeley2.600.0%1st Place
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13.37University of California at Davis0.120.0%1st Place
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8.22California State University Monterey Bay2.300.0%1st Place
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10.43University of California at Berkeley1.570.0%1st Place
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10.96California State University Monterey Bay1.350.0%1st Place
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13.01California State University Monterey Bay0.320.0%1st Place
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9.32University of California at Santa Cruz1.870.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Kelly | 16.0% | 15.3% | 15.2% | 13.5% | 11.7% | 9.3% | 8.1% | 5.1% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nick Dugdale | 10.6% | 13.9% | 13.3% | 11.3% | 12.8% | 10.1% | 10.1% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Justin Doane | 18.9% | 17.3% | 15.7% | 14.8% | 10.8% | 9.2% | 6.1% | 4.3% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Harrison Hatton | 24.9% | 19.2% | 15.3% | 15.4% | 9.9% | 7.2% | 4.6% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael Lazzaro | 2.7% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 13.1% | 12.4% | 9.4% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 0.7% |
| Eliza Richartz | 6.9% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 9.2% | 10.6% | 12.7% | 10.8% | 10.6% | 10.3% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Soper | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 10.0% | 10.2% | 11.7% | 10.8% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Erik Lund | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 9.1% | 11.6% | 14.6% | 14.9% | 10.5% | 2.6% |
| Cody Shevitz | 3.3% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 10.1% | 10.6% | 11.8% | 10.1% | 10.6% | 7.7% | 5.7% | 3.1% | 0.5% | 0.3% |
| Christopher Hagerman | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 7.5% | 9.9% | 22.5% | 45.6% |
| Bradley Schoch | 2.9% | 3.5% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 9.0% | 10.5% | 11.0% | 11.4% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 3.0% | 0.9% |
| Aubrey Toole | 1.9% | 0.7% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 10.7% | 13.2% | 13.1% | 15.1% | 11.7% | 4.1% |
| Kellsy Panno | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 7.6% | 13.2% | 14.1% | 17.4% | 14.0% | 7.9% |
| Janet Rumsey | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 5.3% | 8.0% | 12.7% | 24.5% | 35.9% |
| Mickail Murawski | 2.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 7.9% | 11.1% | 11.4% | 11.2% | 12.6% | 10.7% | 6.4% | 1.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.