← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
100.0%
Within 2 Positions
0.7
Avg Position Diff
5
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1University of Vermont2.80+0.32vs Predicted
-
2University of Vermont1.13+0.51vs Predicted
-
3Middlebury College-0.68+1.00vs Predicted
-
4Amherst College0.89-1.30vs Predicted
-
5Middlebury College-1.27-0.53vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
1.32University of Vermont2.800.7%1st Place
-
2.51University of Vermont1.130.1%1st Place
-
4.0Middlebury College-0.680.0%1st Place
-
2.7Amherst College0.890.1%1st Place
-
4.47Middlebury College-1.270.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Harden | 74.4% | 19.6% | 5.2% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Elliott Gear | 12.9% | 38.9% | 34.3% | 12.5% | 1.4% |
| Alexie Lessing | 2.5% | 5.9% | 13.5% | 45.2% | 32.9% |
| Noah Brayer | 9.4% | 32.3% | 39.9% | 15.5% | 2.9% |
| Nathaniel Wiener | 0.8% | 3.3% | 7.1% | 26.1% | 62.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.