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📊 Prediction Accuracy
100.0%
Within 2 Positions
0.7
Avg Position Diff
5
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Amherst College0.89+1.71vs Predicted
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2University of Vermont2.80-0.66vs Predicted
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3University of Vermont1.13-0.51vs Predicted
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4Middlebury College-0.68+0.01vs Predicted
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5Middlebury College-1.27-0.55vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.71Amherst College0.890.1%1st Place
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1.34University of Vermont2.800.7%1st Place
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2.49University of Vermont1.130.1%1st Place
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4.01Middlebury College-0.680.0%1st Place
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4.45Middlebury College-1.270.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Brayer | 11.1% | 30.2% | 38.6% | 16.7% | 3.4% |
| Thomas Harden | 71.6% | 23.1% | 4.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Elliott Gear | 14.7% | 36.5% | 36.0% | 11.0% | 1.8% |
| Alexie Lessing | 1.8% | 6.4% | 12.9% | 46.9% | 32.0% |
| Nathaniel Wiener | 0.8% | 3.8% | 7.6% | 25.0% | 62.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.