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📊 Prediction Accuracy
100.0%
Within 2 Positions
0.6
Avg Position Diff
5
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Vermont2.80+0.33vs Predicted
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2Amherst College0.89+0.69vs Predicted
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3University of Vermont1.13-0.50vs Predicted
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4Middlebury College-1.27+0.46vs Predicted
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5Middlebury College-0.68-0.98vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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1.33University of Vermont2.800.7%1st Place
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2.69Amherst College0.890.1%1st Place
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2.5University of Vermont1.130.1%1st Place
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4.46Middlebury College-1.270.0%1st Place
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4.02Middlebury College-0.680.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Harden | 73.1% | 21.0% | 5.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Noah Brayer | 9.9% | 30.7% | 41.8% | 15.4% | 2.2% |
| Elliott Gear | 14.0% | 37.6% | 34.4% | 12.9% | 1.1% |
| Nathaniel Wiener | 1.0% | 3.5% | 6.3% | 26.9% | 62.3% |
| Alexie Lessing | 2.0% | 7.2% | 12.1% | 44.4% | 34.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.