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📊 Prediction Accuracy
80.0%
Within 2 Positions
1.0
Avg Position Diff
5
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Vermont2.80+0.34vs Predicted
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2Amherst College0.89+0.69vs Predicted
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3Middlebury College-1.27+1.43vs Predicted
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4Middlebury College-0.68+0.04vs Predicted
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5University of Vermont1.13-2.50vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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1.34University of Vermont2.800.7%1st Place
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2.69Amherst College0.890.1%1st Place
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4.43Middlebury College-1.270.0%1st Place
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4.04Middlebury College-0.680.0%1st Place
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2.5University of Vermont1.130.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Harden | 72.7% | 20.9% | 5.7% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Noah Brayer | 10.1% | 32.2% | 39.6% | 15.2% | 2.9% |
| Nathaniel Wiener | 1.2% | 3.9% | 7.5% | 25.8% | 61.6% |
| Alexie Lessing | 1.9% | 5.5% | 13.2% | 45.7% | 33.7% |
| Elliott Gear | 14.1% | 37.5% | 34.0% | 12.6% | 1.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.