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📊 Prediction Accuracy
100.0%
Within 2 Positions
0.8
Avg Position Diff
5
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Vermont2.80+0.33vs Predicted
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2Amherst College0.89+0.70vs Predicted
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3Middlebury College-0.68+1.00vs Predicted
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4University of Vermont1.13-1.49vs Predicted
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5Middlebury College-1.27-0.54vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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1.33University of Vermont2.800.7%1st Place
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2.7Amherst College0.890.1%1st Place
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4.0Middlebury College-0.680.0%1st Place
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2.51University of Vermont1.130.1%1st Place
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4.46Middlebury College-1.270.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Harden | 74.0% | 20.4% | 4.7% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Noah Brayer | 9.8% | 31.8% | 39.5% | 16.3% | 2.6% |
| Alexie Lessing | 2.6% | 5.9% | 13.7% | 44.9% | 32.9% |
| Elliott Gear | 12.7% | 38.5% | 35.2% | 11.8% | 1.8% |
| Nathaniel Wiener | 0.9% | 3.4% | 6.9% | 26.3% | 62.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.