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📊 Prediction Accuracy
100.0%
Within 2 Positions
0.5
Avg Position Diff
5
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Vermont2.80+0.33vs Predicted
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2University of Vermont1.13+0.47vs Predicted
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3Amherst College0.89-0.29vs Predicted
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4Middlebury College-1.27+0.46vs Predicted
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5Middlebury College-0.68-0.97vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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1.33University of Vermont2.800.7%1st Place
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2.47University of Vermont1.130.1%1st Place
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2.71Amherst College0.890.1%1st Place
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4.46Middlebury College-1.270.0%1st Place
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4.03Middlebury College-0.680.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Harden | 73.7% | 19.9% | 5.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Elliott Gear | 13.0% | 39.5% | 35.6% | 11.0% | 0.9% |
| Noah Brayer | 10.4% | 30.4% | 40.2% | 16.3% | 2.7% |
| Nathaniel Wiener | 1.0% | 3.4% | 6.7% | 26.7% | 62.2% |
| Alexie Lessing | 1.9% | 6.8% | 11.6% | 45.6% | 34.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.