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📊 Prediction Accuracy
100.0%
Within 2 Positions
1.0
Avg Position Diff
5
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Vermont2.80+0.34vs Predicted
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2Amherst College0.89+0.70vs Predicted
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3Middlebury College-1.27+1.45vs Predicted
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4University of Vermont1.13-1.50vs Predicted
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5Middlebury College-0.68-0.99vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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1.34University of Vermont2.800.7%1st Place
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2.7Amherst College0.890.1%1st Place
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4.45Middlebury College-1.270.0%1st Place
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2.5University of Vermont1.130.1%1st Place
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4.01Middlebury College-0.680.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Harden | 73.7% | 20.1% | 5.0% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Noah Brayer | 10.3% | 30.9% | 39.9% | 16.2% | 2.7% |
| Nathaniel Wiener | 1.2% | 3.4% | 7.7% | 24.5% | 63.2% |
| Elliott Gear | 12.8% | 39.1% | 34.5% | 12.1% | 1.5% |
| Alexie Lessing | 2.0% | 6.5% | 12.9% | 46.1% | 32.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.