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📊 Prediction Accuracy
100.0%
Within 2 Positions
0.6
Avg Position Diff
6
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Wesleyan University0.55+1.29vs Predicted
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2Fairfield University0.64+0.12vs Predicted
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3Middlebury College0.21-0.41vs Predicted
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4University of Massachusetts at Amherst-1.30+0.33vs Predicted
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5Sacred Heart University-1.28-0.60vs Predicted
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6Amherst College-2.18-0.74vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.29Wesleyan University0.550.3%1st Place
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2.12Fairfield University0.640.4%1st Place
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2.59Middlebury College0.210.2%1st Place
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4.33University of Massachusetts at Amherst-1.300.0%1st Place
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4.4Sacred Heart University-1.280.0%1st Place
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5.26Amherst College-2.180.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathaniel Barton | 30.1% | 29.9% | 26.2% | 9.4% | 3.2% | 1.2% |
| Lillian Vincens | 38.3% | 27.0% | 22.4% | 9.1% | 2.9% | 0.3% |
| Anna Spiro | 22.4% | 25.3% | 28.8% | 18.1% | 4.7% | 0.7% |
| Sarah Gallagher | 4.7% | 7.0% | 9.5% | 26.1% | 34.6% | 18.1% |
| Wynn Simmons | 3.1% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 26.9% | 30.0% | 22.6% |
| Luke Haggerty | 1.4% | 2.4% | 4.1% | 10.4% | 24.6% | 57.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.