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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Boston College2.58+5.76vs Predicted
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2Brown University2.37+5.15vs Predicted
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3Yale University2.85+2.00vs Predicted
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4Tufts University1.27+5.89vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.13+2.52vs Predicted
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6Bowdoin College2.06+0.73vs Predicted
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7University of Pennsylvania1.77+0.64vs Predicted
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8Stanford University2.72-2.90vs Predicted
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9Boston University1.07+2.97vs Predicted
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10Jacksonville University1.70-1.21vs Predicted
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11Roger Williams University2.09-3.86vs Predicted
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12U. S. Naval Academy2.28-5.51vs Predicted
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130.68-1.19vs Predicted
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14Northeastern University1.07-3.02vs Predicted
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15Fordham University1.17-4.61vs Predicted
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16SUNY Maritime College-0.13-1.70vs Predicted
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17U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.61-1.66vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.76Boston College2.588.8%1st Place
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7.15Brown University2.377.4%1st Place
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5.0Yale University2.8512.7%1st Place
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9.89Tufts University1.273.1%1st Place
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7.52Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.136.7%1st Place
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6.73Bowdoin College2.067.7%1st Place
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7.64University of Pennsylvania1.776.8%1st Place
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5.1Stanford University2.7215.4%1st Place
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11.97Boston University1.072.4%1st Place
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8.79Jacksonville University1.704.2%1st Place
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7.14Roger Williams University2.098.7%1st Place
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6.49U. S. Naval Academy2.288.3%1st Place
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11.810.681.7%1st Place
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10.98Northeastern University1.072.1%1st Place
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10.39Fordham University1.172.5%1st Place
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14.3SUNY Maritime College-0.130.9%1st Place
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15.34U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.610.5%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peter Busch | 8.8% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Blake Behrens | 7.4% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Stephan Baker | 12.7% | 13.4% | 13.0% | 12.7% | 10.1% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Wyatt Bischoff | 3.1% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 9.8% | 10.2% | 8.7% | 5.2% | 0.9% |
| JJ Klempen | 6.7% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Sam Bonauto | 7.7% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 9.4% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Sofia Segalla | 6.8% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Lucas Woodworth | 15.4% | 13.4% | 12.0% | 10.0% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Porter Bell | 2.4% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 10.6% | 16.4% | 14.7% | 7.0% |
| Patrick Igoe | 4.2% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 6.9% | 4.8% | 2.2% | 0.6% |
| Oliver Stokke | 8.7% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Jack Welburn | 8.3% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Jack Homa | 1.7% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 9.7% | 14.3% | 13.9% | 12.5% | 5.5% |
| Joshua Dillon | 2.1% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 8.5% | 10.5% | 11.2% | 12.5% | 8.9% | 3.5% |
| Patrick Shachoy | 2.5% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 8.2% | 9.1% | 10.7% | 11.5% | 9.8% | 6.0% | 1.7% |
| Luke Barker | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 7.5% | 12.8% | 28.7% | 26.2% |
| Oscar Gilroy | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 8.2% | 18.1% | 53.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.