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📊 Prediction Accuracy
47.1%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University2.85+3.87vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.13+5.76vs Predicted
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3Brown University2.37+4.18vs Predicted
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4University of Pennsylvania1.77+3.93vs Predicted
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5Stanford University2.72+0.20vs Predicted
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6Roger Williams University2.09+1.27vs Predicted
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7Boston College2.58-0.61vs Predicted
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8Tufts University1.27+1.75vs Predicted
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9Jacksonville University1.70-0.18vs Predicted
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10Boston University1.07+2.01vs Predicted
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11Bowdoin College2.06-4.30vs Predicted
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12Fordham University1.17-1.79vs Predicted
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13U. S. Naval Academy2.28-6.51vs Predicted
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14Northeastern University1.07-2.95vs Predicted
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150.68-3.04vs Predicted
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16SUNY Maritime College-0.13-1.90vs Predicted
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17U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.61-1.69vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.87Yale University2.8514.8%1st Place
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7.76Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.136.7%1st Place
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7.18Brown University2.376.9%1st Place
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7.93University of Pennsylvania1.775.8%1st Place
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5.2Stanford University2.7213.8%1st Place
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7.27Roger Williams University2.097.0%1st Place
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6.39Boston College2.589.6%1st Place
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9.75Tufts University1.273.8%1st Place
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8.82Jacksonville University1.704.3%1st Place
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12.01Boston University1.071.0%1st Place
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6.7Bowdoin College2.068.3%1st Place
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10.21Fordham University1.173.5%1st Place
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6.49U. S. Naval Academy2.289.0%1st Place
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11.05Northeastern University1.072.3%1st Place
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11.960.681.9%1st Place
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14.1SUNY Maritime College-0.130.9%1st Place
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15.31U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.610.5%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephan Baker | 14.8% | 14.4% | 12.2% | 11.6% | 9.6% | 9.0% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| JJ Klempen | 6.7% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| Blake Behrens | 6.9% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Sofia Segalla | 5.8% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Lucas Woodworth | 13.8% | 12.3% | 11.5% | 10.4% | 11.4% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Oliver Stokke | 7.0% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Peter Busch | 9.6% | 8.2% | 9.8% | 10.2% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Wyatt Bischoff | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 10.2% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 4.9% | 1.2% |
| Patrick Igoe | 4.3% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 9.7% | 7.3% | 9.2% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 2.5% | 0.7% |
| Porter Bell | 1.0% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 8.8% | 12.2% | 16.1% | 14.1% | 6.5% |
| Sam Bonauto | 8.3% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Patrick Shachoy | 3.5% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 11.2% | 9.7% | 6.2% | 2.2% |
| Jack Welburn | 9.0% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 9.1% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 9.0% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Joshua Dillon | 2.3% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 10.6% | 10.8% | 12.0% | 9.2% | 3.5% |
| Jack Homa | 1.9% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 8.8% | 13.6% | 16.2% | 13.6% | 5.6% |
| Luke Barker | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 7.2% | 14.2% | 26.5% | 25.4% |
| Oscar Gilroy | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 3.6% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 18.8% | 54.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.