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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Fordham University2.82+3.77vs Predicted
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2Queen's University1.79+5.83vs Predicted
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3University of Virginia3.01+1.21vs Predicted
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5University of Pennsylvania2.68+0.18vs Predicted
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6Monmouth University1.95+1.50vs Predicted
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7George Washington University1.35+2.41vs Predicted
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8Rochester Institute of Technology2.00-0.69vs Predicted
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9Cornell University2.32-2.66vs Predicted
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10St. John's College1.42-0.83vs Predicted
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11Columbia University2.43-4.96vs Predicted
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12Ocean County College1.73-3.78vs Predicted
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15William and Mary1.27-5.19vs Predicted
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16Stevens Institute of Technology2.02-8.49vs Predicted
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17Princeton University0.21-4.70vs Predicted
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18Colgate University-1.39-3.61vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.77Fordham University2.820.1%1st Place
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7.83Queen's University1.790.0%1st Place
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4.21University of Virginia3.010.2%1st Place
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5.18University of Pennsylvania2.680.1%1st Place
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7.5Monmouth University1.950.1%1st Place
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9.41George Washington University1.350.0%1st Place
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7.31Rochester Institute of Technology2.000.1%1st Place
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6.34Cornell University2.320.1%1st Place
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9.17St. John's College1.420.0%1st Place
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6.04Columbia University2.430.1%1st Place
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8.22Ocean County College1.730.0%1st Place
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9.81William and Mary1.270.0%1st Place
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7.51Stevens Institute of Technology2.020.1%1st Place
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12.3Princeton University0.210.0%1st Place
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14.39Colgate University-1.390.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Graham Gardner | 13.7% | 15.6% | 12.8% | 10.6% | 10.9% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| Charles Legge | 4.5% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 4.4% | 0.6% |
| Christopher Stessing | 18.3% | 16.2% | 13.4% | 12.3% | 9.6% | 9.5% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael Russom | 13.1% | 12.0% | 11.6% | 10.5% | 10.7% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Paul Stevens | 6.8% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 9.7% | 9.9% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 3.0% | 0.4% |
| Julia Gardner | 3.0% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 11.1% | 12.4% | 13.9% | 9.6% | 1.4% |
| Nick Troche | 7.6% | 4.7% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 10.1% | 9.0% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 2.7% | 0.2% |
| Blair Davis | 8.2% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 9.7% | 9.4% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 0.1% |
| Evgenia Olimpieva | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 10.9% | 10.5% | 13.1% | 8.0% | 1.6% |
| Irene Jacqz | 8.4% | 8.1% | 11.1% | 9.8% | 10.9% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 6.3% | 4.4% | 6.2% | 4.2% | 2.4% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Zachary Schippe | 4.1% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 7.7% | 10.3% | 9.6% | 4.6% | 1.1% |
| Jonathan Conway | 3.0% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 10.1% | 13.1% | 16.3% | 13.0% | 0.9% |
| Christian Geary | 5.4% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 9.4% | 9.5% | 10.1% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 5.0% | 2.5% | 0.2% |
| Andrew Werner | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 13.4% | 39.9% | 13.7% |
| Sara Winkelman | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 3.0% | 10.0% | 79.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.