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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1George Washington University1.35+7.87vs Predicted
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2Columbia University2.43+3.60vs Predicted
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3Stevens Institute of Technology2.02+3.92vs Predicted
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4Monmouth University1.95+3.20vs Predicted
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5Fordham University2.82-0.29vs Predicted
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6Rochester Institute of Technology2.00+1.06vs Predicted
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7Cornell University2.32-0.99vs Predicted
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8University of Virginia3.01-3.84vs Predicted
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9University of Pennsylvania2.68-4.07vs Predicted
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10St. John's College1.42-1.08vs Predicted
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12Ocean County College0.200.00vs Predicted
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13William and Mary1.27-3.46vs Predicted
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14Queen's University1.79-6.09vs Predicted
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15Princeton University0.21-3.06vs Predicted
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18Colgate University-1.39-3.77vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.87George Washington University1.350.0%1st Place
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5.6Columbia University2.430.1%1st Place
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6.92Stevens Institute of Technology2.020.1%1st Place
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7.2Monmouth University1.950.1%1st Place
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4.71Fordham University2.820.1%1st Place
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7.06Rochester Institute of Technology2.000.1%1st Place
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6.01Cornell University2.320.1%1st Place
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4.16University of Virginia3.010.2%1st Place
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4.93University of Pennsylvania2.680.1%1st Place
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8.92St. John's College1.420.0%1st Place
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12.0Ocean County College0.200.0%1st Place
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9.54William and Mary1.270.0%1st Place
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7.91Queen's University1.790.1%1st Place
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11.94Princeton University0.210.0%1st Place
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14.23Colgate University-1.390.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julia Gardner | 3.7% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 9.5% | 11.1% | 13.0% | 10.5% | 6.4% | 1.2% |
| Irene Jacqz | 10.2% | 11.0% | 11.2% | 9.8% | 11.5% | 8.7% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Christian Geary | 5.8% | 8.6% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 7.0% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 10.0% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 2.7% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| Paul Stevens | 6.1% | 5.3% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 9.6% | 7.9% | 8.9% | 3.4% | 1.5% | 0.2% |
| Graham Gardner | 14.9% | 14.3% | 11.8% | 11.3% | 10.3% | 10.8% | 8.1% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Nick Troche | 5.3% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 8.9% | 10.6% | 10.1% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Blair Davis | 9.0% | 8.7% | 9.9% | 9.3% | 10.8% | 9.7% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Stessing | 18.6% | 16.2% | 13.0% | 13.8% | 8.7% | 9.8% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael Russom | 12.0% | 13.1% | 12.7% | 12.5% | 9.4% | 10.1% | 9.2% | 8.7% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Evgenia Olimpieva | 3.5% | 2.6% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 9.3% | 10.1% | 12.0% | 11.7% | 10.1% | 6.0% | 0.9% |
| Nicholas Rinaldi | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 9.4% | 18.3% | 30.8% | 12.9% |
| Jonathan Conway | 2.8% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 9.7% | 13.2% | 12.4% | 15.2% | 7.9% | 0.8% |
| Charles Legge | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 11.6% | 8.6% | 11.9% | 9.0% | 6.3% | 2.3% | 0.4% |
| Andrew Werner | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 10.2% | 20.2% | 30.1% | 10.1% |
| Sara Winkelman | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 5.7% | 12.0% | 73.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.