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📊 Prediction Accuracy
40.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Pennsylvania2.68+3.95vs Predicted
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2University of Virginia3.01+2.05vs Predicted
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3Cornell University2.32+3.00vs Predicted
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4Fordham University2.82+0.62vs Predicted
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5Monmouth University1.95+2.24vs Predicted
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7Columbia University2.43-1.31vs Predicted
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8Rochester Institute of Technology2.00-1.01vs Predicted
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9St. John's College1.42-0.12vs Predicted
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11George Washington University1.35-2.00vs Predicted
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12Stevens Institute of Technology2.02-4.92vs Predicted
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13Ocean County College0.20-0.97vs Predicted
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14William and Mary1.27-4.53vs Predicted
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16Queen's University1.79-8.13vs Predicted
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17Princeton University0.21-5.08vs Predicted
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18Colgate University-1.39-3.78vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.95University of Pennsylvania2.680.1%1st Place
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4.05University of Virginia3.010.2%1st Place
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6.0Cornell University2.320.1%1st Place
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4.62Fordham University2.820.2%1st Place
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7.24Monmouth University1.950.1%1st Place
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5.69Columbia University2.430.1%1st Place
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6.99Rochester Institute of Technology2.000.1%1st Place
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8.88St. John's College1.420.0%1st Place
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9.0George Washington University1.350.0%1st Place
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7.08Stevens Institute of Technology2.020.1%1st Place
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12.03Ocean County College0.200.0%1st Place
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9.47William and Mary1.270.0%1st Place
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7.87Queen's University1.790.1%1st Place
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11.92Princeton University0.210.0%1st Place
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14.22Colgate University-1.390.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Russom | 13.3% | 13.3% | 12.2% | 11.0% | 11.7% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 5.3% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Stessing | 18.0% | 18.8% | 13.5% | 13.0% | 9.3% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Blair Davis | 9.3% | 8.4% | 10.7% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 9.9% | 10.1% | 9.6% | 8.4% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Graham Gardner | 15.6% | 13.9% | 13.1% | 12.4% | 9.0% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 6.6% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Paul Stevens | 6.3% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 9.9% | 10.7% | 8.7% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 5.0% | 1.7% | 0.1% |
| Irene Jacqz | 8.7% | 10.3% | 10.9% | 9.4% | 11.5% | 10.2% | 9.5% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Nick Troche | 7.3% | 5.4% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 10.8% | 8.9% | 9.5% | 9.0% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 3.3% | 1.5% | 0.2% |
| Evgenia Olimpieva | 3.4% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 13.0% | 11.8% | 11.7% | 4.8% | 1.1% |
| Julia Gardner | 2.6% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 8.4% | 9.4% | 10.8% | 12.8% | 12.1% | 5.1% | 1.2% |
| Christian Geary | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 10.3% | 9.1% | 7.3% | 10.5% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 6.1% | 3.6% | 1.8% | 0.1% |
| Nicholas Rinaldi | 1.0% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 10.9% | 17.5% | 31.0% | 13.0% |
| Jonathan Conway | 2.2% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 9.6% | 11.8% | 15.3% | 12.9% | 8.3% | 0.6% |
| Charles Legge | 5.4% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 10.0% | 11.9% | 11.4% | 8.0% | 5.8% | 2.7% | 0.4% |
| Andrew Werner | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 4.0% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 9.8% | 20.1% | 29.4% | 10.3% |
| Sara Winkelman | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 5.0% | 12.3% | 73.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.