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📊 Prediction Accuracy
26.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Columbia University2.43+4.85vs Predicted
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2University of Pennsylvania2.68+3.07vs Predicted
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4Monmouth University1.95+3.40vs Predicted
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5Rochester Institute of Technology2.00+2.31vs Predicted
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6Fordham University2.82-1.12vs Predicted
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7William and Mary1.27+2.68vs Predicted
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8Queen's University1.79-0.10vs Predicted
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9Ocean County College1.73-0.79vs Predicted
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10Cornell University2.32-3.72vs Predicted
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11St. John's College1.42-1.73vs Predicted
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12University of Virginia3.01-7.56vs Predicted
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13Stevens Institute of Technology2.02-5.51vs Predicted
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15George Washington University1.35-5.42vs Predicted
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16Princeton University0.21-3.71vs Predicted
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18Colgate University-1.39-3.64vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.85Columbia University2.430.1%1st Place
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5.07University of Pennsylvania2.680.1%1st Place
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7.4Monmouth University1.950.1%1st Place
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7.31Rochester Institute of Technology2.000.1%1st Place
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4.88Fordham University2.820.1%1st Place
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9.68William and Mary1.270.0%1st Place
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7.9Queen's University1.790.1%1st Place
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8.21Ocean County College1.730.0%1st Place
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6.28Cornell University2.320.1%1st Place
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9.27St. John's College1.420.0%1st Place
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4.44University of Virginia3.010.2%1st Place
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7.49Stevens Institute of Technology2.020.1%1st Place
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9.58George Washington University1.350.0%1st Place
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12.29Princeton University0.210.0%1st Place
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14.36Colgate University-1.390.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Irene Jacqz | 10.8% | 9.5% | 9.9% | 10.3% | 9.1% | 10.5% | 8.7% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Michael Russom | 13.0% | 13.6% | 11.5% | 11.8% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Paul Stevens | 5.2% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 6.3% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 5.0% | 2.4% | 0.3% |
| Nick Troche | 6.0% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 9.3% | 8.7% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 4.9% | 2.7% | 0.3% |
| Graham Gardner | 14.6% | 13.2% | 10.7% | 12.5% | 10.1% | 9.6% | 9.0% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Jonathan Conway | 2.4% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 8.7% | 10.2% | 12.6% | 17.4% | 10.1% | 1.7% |
| Charles Legge | 5.6% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 7.7% | 9.2% | 10.4% | 8.7% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 4.2% | 0.6% |
| Zachary Schippe | 4.9% | 4.2% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 9.3% | 9.7% | 10.3% | 8.4% | 4.8% | 0.6% |
| Blair Davis | 8.0% | 7.3% | 9.9% | 9.6% | 9.9% | 10.4% | 6.5% | 9.6% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 4.1% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Evgenia Olimpieva | 2.6% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 10.4% | 11.3% | 12.8% | 9.7% | 1.3% |
| Christopher Stessing | 17.6% | 17.0% | 13.0% | 8.7% | 10.7% | 8.8% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Christian Geary | 5.1% | 4.8% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 5.9% | 2.0% | 0.2% |
| Julia Gardner | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 9.7% | 13.5% | 15.4% | 11.8% | 1.4% |
| Andrew Werner | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 12.3% | 41.0% | 13.8% |
| Sara Winkelman | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 3.5% | 9.3% | 79.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.