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📊 Prediction Accuracy
81.8%
Within 2 Positions
1.6
Avg Position Diff
11
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Vermont-0.34+2.75vs Predicted
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2University of Vermont0.18+0.92vs Predicted
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3Middlebury College-0.37+0.85vs Predicted
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4Williams College-0.90+1.34vs Predicted
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5Amherst College-2.45+2.99vs Predicted
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6University of Vermont-0.62-1.80vs Predicted
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7University of New Hampshire-1.30-1.28vs Predicted
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8Middlebury College-1.97-0.68vs Predicted
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9Middlebury College-1.97-1.77vs Predicted
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10University of New Hampshire-2.40-1.95vs Predicted
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11Amherst College-3.33-1.36vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.75University of Vermont-0.3417.8%1st Place
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2.92University of Vermont0.1827.9%1st Place
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3.85Middlebury College-0.3716.2%1st Place
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5.34Williams College-0.908.0%1st Place
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7.99Amherst College-2.452.1%1st Place
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4.2University of Vermont-0.6212.4%1st Place
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5.72University of New Hampshire-1.306.3%1st Place
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7.32Middlebury College-1.972.7%1st Place
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7.23Middlebury College-1.973.6%1st Place
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8.05University of New Hampshire-2.402.5%1st Place
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9.64Amherst College-3.330.5%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ocean Smith | 17.8% | 16.2% | 16.6% | 14.6% | 12.3% | 10.0% | 6.7% | 3.7% | 1.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Zachary Amelotte | 27.9% | 21.0% | 18.6% | 12.6% | 9.4% | 6.3% | 3.0% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Penelope Weekes | 16.2% | 16.2% | 14.9% | 16.2% | 13.9% | 9.8% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Felix Nusbaum | 8.0% | 8.9% | 10.3% | 11.0% | 13.4% | 12.7% | 13.1% | 10.9% | 7.2% | 3.8% | 0.8% |
| Rufus Fender-Reid | 2.1% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 7.1% | 10.5% | 12.6% | 17.2% | 19.5% | 15.8% |
| Ryan Petrush | 12.4% | 15.2% | 14.6% | 15.0% | 13.2% | 12.6% | 9.0% | 4.7% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Ian Peterson | 6.3% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 10.4% | 11.6% | 12.8% | 14.0% | 12.8% | 9.1% | 5.0% | 1.4% |
| Kate Adams | 2.7% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 11.8% | 13.6% | 18.9% | 15.7% | 7.0% |
| Aengus Onken | 3.6% | 3.3% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 12.7% | 15.7% | 16.2% | 14.2% | 7.4% |
| Devon Valenta | 2.5% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 7.6% | 9.0% | 14.2% | 16.6% | 22.8% | 13.9% |
| Yunwen Xu | 0.5% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 6.2% | 9.4% | 17.2% | 53.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.