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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Pennsylvania2.68+4.18vs Predicted
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2University of Virginia3.01+2.23vs Predicted
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3Fordham University2.82+1.73vs Predicted
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4Queen's University1.79+3.96vs Predicted
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6Monmouth University1.95+1.55vs Predicted
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7Cornell University2.32-0.67vs Predicted
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8George Washington University1.35+1.27vs Predicted
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9William and Mary1.27+0.63vs Predicted
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10Stevens Institute of Technology2.02-2.77vs Predicted
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11Ocean County College1.73-2.64vs Predicted
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12Rochester Institute of Technology2.00-4.66vs Predicted
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14Columbia University2.43-7.83vs Predicted
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15St. John's College1.42-5.61vs Predicted
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17Princeton University0.21-4.74vs Predicted
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18Colgate University-1.39-3.64vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.18University of Pennsylvania2.680.1%1st Place
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4.23University of Virginia3.010.2%1st Place
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4.73Fordham University2.820.1%1st Place
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7.96Queen's University1.790.0%1st Place
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7.55Monmouth University1.950.1%1st Place
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6.33Cornell University2.320.1%1st Place
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9.27George Washington University1.350.0%1st Place
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9.63William and Mary1.270.0%1st Place
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7.23Stevens Institute of Technology2.020.1%1st Place
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8.36Ocean County College1.730.0%1st Place
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7.34Rochester Institute of Technology2.000.1%1st Place
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6.17Columbia University2.430.1%1st Place
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9.39St. John's College1.420.0%1st Place
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12.26Princeton University0.210.0%1st Place
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14.36Colgate University-1.390.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Russom | 13.7% | 11.1% | 13.0% | 9.8% | 10.1% | 9.7% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Christopher Stessing | 18.0% | 16.9% | 14.2% | 11.1% | 10.4% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Graham Gardner | 14.4% | 14.0% | 12.6% | 12.4% | 10.3% | 8.2% | 9.1% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Charles Legge | 4.4% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 7.5% | 4.4% | 0.4% |
| Paul Stevens | 5.8% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 10.5% | 6.8% | 10.1% | 8.9% | 7.7% | 5.4% | 3.4% | 0.5% |
| Blair Davis | 8.1% | 7.9% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 10.9% | 8.5% | 9.3% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Julia Gardner | 4.3% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 9.2% | 10.6% | 12.4% | 12.8% | 9.1% | 1.8% |
| Jonathan Conway | 3.2% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 9.7% | 11.7% | 16.4% | 10.9% | 2.5% |
| Christian Geary | 5.6% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 9.3% | 8.0% | 9.6% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| Zachary Schippe | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 7.9% | 5.5% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 10.0% | 10.5% | 8.7% | 5.4% | 0.5% |
| Nick Troche | 5.4% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 9.2% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 9.1% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 2.8% | 0.6% |
| Irene Jacqz | 8.8% | 7.9% | 9.7% | 10.7% | 8.4% | 9.6% | 8.4% | 9.3% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Evgenia Olimpieva | 3.2% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 11.2% | 13.0% | 15.0% | 9.2% | 1.2% |
| Andrew Werner | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 8.0% | 11.0% | 41.2% | 13.6% |
| Sara Winkelman | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 10.3% | 78.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.