Race 3B

stuart-walker

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

72.7%
Within 2 Positions
1.4
Avg Position Diff
11
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Felix Nusbaum 8.8% 7.8% 9.8% 11.2% 12.9% 14.7% 13.8% 10.1% 6.9% 3.0% 0.9%
Zachary Amelotte 27.5% 23.8% 17.0% 13.1% 9.3% 5.5% 2.7% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Ocean Smith 16.4% 18.0% 17.6% 16.4% 12.7% 8.0% 5.5% 3.9% 1.2% 0.4% 0.0%
Penelope Weekes 15.8% 16.0% 16.0% 16.1% 12.7% 10.3% 7.1% 3.8% 1.9% 0.4% 0.1%
Ryan Petrush 11.9% 13.4% 15.2% 14.1% 12.4% 12.4% 9.9% 6.2% 2.9% 1.4% 0.1%
Rufus Fender-Reid 1.8% 2.5% 3.0% 3.6% 5.4% 6.3% 10.0% 12.2% 16.8% 23.0% 15.4%
Ian Peterson 7.3% 7.4% 8.2% 9.3% 12.1% 15.3% 12.6% 12.2% 8.9% 5.3% 1.3%
Aengus Onken 4.0% 3.4% 4.1% 5.9% 7.0% 8.6% 12.8% 15.4% 16.7% 15.3% 6.9%
Devon Valenta 2.1% 2.9% 3.3% 3.9% 5.1% 6.7% 9.1% 12.7% 17.2% 21.2% 16.0%
Kate Adams 3.2% 4.0% 4.2% 5.3% 7.9% 9.7% 12.6% 16.2% 16.8% 13.6% 6.8%
Yunwen Xu 1.1% 1.1% 1.5% 1.1% 2.6% 2.4% 4.0% 6.7% 10.5% 16.4% 52.7%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.