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📊 Prediction Accuracy
72.7%
Within 2 Positions
1.5
Avg Position Diff
11
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland3.48+3.26vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University4.51+0.41vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.60+1.10vs Predicted
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4Old Dominion University2.87+1.65vs Predicted
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5Fordham University2.16+1.89vs Predicted
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6University of Pennsylvania2.79-0.39vs Predicted
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7George Washington University2.23-0.37vs Predicted
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8U. S. Naval Academy2.71-2.32vs Predicted
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9Cornell University3.35-4.48vs Predicted
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10William and Mary-0.04-0.05vs Predicted
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11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.47-0.70vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.26St. Mary's College of Maryland3.480.1%1st Place
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2.41Georgetown University4.510.4%1st Place
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4.1Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.600.1%1st Place
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5.65Old Dominion University2.870.1%1st Place
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6.89Fordham University2.160.0%1st Place
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5.61University of Pennsylvania2.790.1%1st Place
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6.63George Washington University2.230.0%1st Place
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5.68U. S. Naval Academy2.710.1%1st Place
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4.52Cornell University3.350.1%1st Place
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9.95William and Mary-0.040.0%1st Place
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10.3U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.470.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mayumi Roller | 10.8% | 15.3% | 13.8% | 17.0% | 13.2% | 11.7% | 9.8% | 6.0% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Sydney Bolger | 37.1% | 23.6% | 18.2% | 10.1% | 6.8% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Caroline Patten | 13.5% | 14.3% | 15.8% | 14.8% | 13.1% | 13.4% | 8.3% | 4.8% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Corina Radtke | 5.8% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 12.1% | 15.1% | 14.6% | 13.7% | 9.5% | 2.8% | 0.4% |
| Ryann Hall | 4.0% | 3.8% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 10.9% | 16.1% | 26.9% | 8.2% | 1.1% |
| Amanda Johnson | 6.3% | 9.4% | 7.7% | 10.6% | 11.4% | 12.3% | 15.4% | 13.0% | 11.2% | 2.6% | 0.1% |
| Meredith Carroll | 4.6% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 9.1% | 13.3% | 18.7% | 20.9% | 6.7% | 0.7% |
| Killian Corbishley | 6.8% | 6.2% | 9.8% | 11.7% | 11.7% | 12.1% | 11.5% | 14.3% | 12.4% | 3.3% | 0.2% |
| Lauren Turner | 10.3% | 14.0% | 14.1% | 13.2% | 13.0% | 12.4% | 10.9% | 6.7% | 4.6% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Catherine Olsen | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 6.9% | 44.0% | 39.0% |
| Jessie Shifalo | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 30.6% | 58.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.