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📊 Prediction Accuracy
29.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.08+4.19vs Predicted
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2George Washington University3.41+5.34vs Predicted
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3Yale University4.24+1.94vs Predicted
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4Old Dominion University3.50+3.22vs Predicted
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5U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.45+2.21vs Predicted
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6Texas A&M University at Galveston3.04+2.84vs Predicted
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7University of Wisconsin2.08+4.64vs Predicted
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8U. S. Naval Academy3.63-1.40vs Predicted
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9College of Charleston4.09-3.55vs Predicted
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10Roger Williams University3.77-3.81vs Predicted
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11Boston University2.97-2.01vs Predicted
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12University of California at Santa Barbara3.09-3.51vs Predicted
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13Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.61-0.10vs Predicted
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15Jacksonville University3.43-7.54vs Predicted
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16Western Washington University1.03-1.98vs Predicted
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17University of Notre Dame1.24-3.24vs Predicted
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18University of Texas-1.34-1.27vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.19Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.080.1%1st Place
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7.34George Washington University3.410.1%1st Place
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4.94Yale University4.240.1%1st Place
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7.22Old Dominion University3.500.1%1st Place
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7.21U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.450.1%1st Place
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8.84Texas A&M University at Galveston3.040.0%1st Place
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11.64University of Wisconsin2.080.0%1st Place
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6.6U. S. Naval Academy3.630.1%1st Place
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5.45College of Charleston4.090.1%1st Place
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6.19Roger Williams University3.770.1%1st Place
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8.99Boston University2.970.0%1st Place
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8.49University of California at Santa Barbara3.090.0%1st Place
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12.9Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.610.0%1st Place
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7.46Jacksonville University3.430.1%1st Place
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14.02Western Washington University1.030.0%1st Place
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13.76University of Notre Dame1.240.0%1st Place
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16.73University of Texas-1.340.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greiner Hobbs | 14.9% | 11.8% | 9.7% | 10.8% | 8.7% | 10.8% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kai Friesecke | 6.2% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 6.6% | 8.7% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 2.7% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Baird | 14.4% | 14.0% | 12.4% | 9.8% | 8.7% | 10.3% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jeremy Herrin | 6.9% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 6.1% | 8.5% | 9.6% | 7.9% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Dana Rohde | 6.4% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 6.5% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| John Hanna | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 11.5% | 9.3% | 9.5% | 6.5% | 3.6% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Charles Bocklet | 2.1% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 4.1% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 9.7% | 14.3% | 18.8% | 14.3% | 8.2% | 0.4% |
| Gary Prieto | 9.3% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 9.5% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Stefano Peschiera | 10.1% | 11.4% | 11.8% | 11.3% | 10.9% | 9.7% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mackenzie Bryan | 8.4% | 9.4% | 10.3% | 9.0% | 9.9% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Robby Gearon | 4.6% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 9.9% | 10.3% | 10.3% | 7.5% | 4.3% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| Neil Stapleton | 4.9% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 9.7% | 8.4% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Ben Brough | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 6.6% | 10.9% | 19.3% | 21.0% | 17.5% | 2.9% |
| Alfonso Garcia Bringas | 5.4% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 8.8% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 9.4% | 9.3% | 7.5% | 5.3% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Dillon Kilroy | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 11.8% | 20.5% | 37.2% | 5.1% |
| Kevin Gallagher | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 3.7% | 6.1% | 8.8% | 15.2% | 23.2% | 28.0% | 3.8% |
| Aaron Comen | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 1.5% | 3.4% | 6.0% | 87.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.