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📊 Prediction Accuracy
23.5%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.08+4.05vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Barbara3.06+6.44vs Predicted
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3Yale University4.24+1.72vs Predicted
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4Texas A&M University at Galveston3.04+4.61vs Predicted
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5Boston University2.84+4.12vs Predicted
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6Roger Williams University3.77+0.28vs Predicted
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7U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.45+0.20vs Predicted
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8Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.61+4.63vs Predicted
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9College of Charleston4.09-3.69vs Predicted
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11Old Dominion University3.50-4.04vs Predicted
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12U. S. Naval Academy3.30-4.16vs Predicted
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13George Washington University3.41-5.70vs Predicted
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14Jacksonville University3.43-6.63vs Predicted
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15University of Wisconsin2.08-3.27vs Predicted
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16University of Notre Dame1.24-2.40vs Predicted
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17Western Washington University1.03-2.89vs Predicted
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18University of Texas-1.34-1.27vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.05Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.080.2%1st Place
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8.44University of California at Santa Barbara3.060.0%1st Place
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4.72Yale University4.240.2%1st Place
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8.61Texas A&M University at Galveston3.040.0%1st Place
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9.12Boston University2.840.0%1st Place
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6.28Roger Williams University3.770.1%1st Place
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7.2U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.450.1%1st Place
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12.63Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.610.0%1st Place
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5.31College of Charleston4.090.1%1st Place
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6.96Old Dominion University3.500.1%1st Place
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7.84U. S. Naval Academy3.300.1%1st Place
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7.3George Washington University3.410.1%1st Place
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7.37Jacksonville University3.430.1%1st Place
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11.73University of Wisconsin2.080.0%1st Place
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13.6University of Notre Dame1.240.0%1st Place
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14.11Western Washington University1.030.0%1st Place
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16.73University of Texas-1.340.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greiner Hobbs | 15.4% | 12.4% | 11.4% | 9.5% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kristopher Swanson | 4.5% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 10.5% | 9.9% | 9.2% | 6.2% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Baird | 15.7% | 14.5% | 11.8% | 11.7% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 8.4% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Hanna | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 9.6% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 2.9% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Lydia Grasberger | 2.9% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 7.9% | 9.7% | 8.3% | 11.1% | 9.8% | 7.9% | 4.0% | 1.9% | 0.1% |
| Mackenzie Bryan | 8.7% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 11.2% | 9.2% | 9.9% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 2.5% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Dana Rohde | 7.4% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 9.3% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 10.2% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 6.6% | 3.9% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ben Brough | 1.3% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 17.9% | 22.0% | 16.5% | 1.8% |
| Stefano Peschiera | 11.3% | 11.8% | 13.1% | 11.6% | 10.1% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jeremy Herrin | 5.9% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 9.1% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Parker Loftus | 6.5% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 9.5% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 4.5% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Kai Friesecke | 6.3% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Alfonso Garcia Bringas | 7.1% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 9.1% | 9.6% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Charles Bocklet | 1.1% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 8.3% | 14.9% | 17.2% | 16.8% | 8.2% | 0.3% |
| Kevin Gallagher | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 5.2% | 8.3% | 12.5% | 21.8% | 30.8% | 3.7% |
| Dillon Kilroy | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 6.9% | 13.5% | 22.3% | 33.1% | 6.5% |
| Aaron Comen | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 7.1% | 87.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.