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📊 Prediction Accuracy
29.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.08+4.04vs Predicted
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2Yale University4.24+2.67vs Predicted
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3U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.45+4.16vs Predicted
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4Texas A&M University at Galveston3.04+4.54vs Predicted
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5University of California at Santa Barbara3.06+3.30vs Predicted
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6U. S. Naval Academy3.30+1.84vs Predicted
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7College of Charleston4.09-1.82vs Predicted
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8Roger Williams University3.77-1.97vs Predicted
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9George Washington University3.41-1.50vs Predicted
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10Western Washington University1.03+4.14vs Predicted
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11Jacksonville University3.43-3.62vs Predicted
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12Old Dominion University3.50-5.05vs Predicted
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13Boston University2.84-3.61vs Predicted
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14University of Wisconsin2.08-2.31vs Predicted
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16University of Notre Dame1.24-2.42vs Predicted
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17Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.61-4.12vs Predicted
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18University of Texas-1.34-1.27vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.04Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.080.1%1st Place
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4.67Yale University4.240.1%1st Place
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7.16U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.450.1%1st Place
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8.54Texas A&M University at Galveston3.040.0%1st Place
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8.3University of California at Santa Barbara3.060.1%1st Place
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7.84U. S. Naval Academy3.300.1%1st Place
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5.18College of Charleston4.090.1%1st Place
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6.03Roger Williams University3.770.1%1st Place
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7.5George Washington University3.410.1%1st Place
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14.14Western Washington University1.030.0%1st Place
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7.38Jacksonville University3.430.1%1st Place
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6.95Old Dominion University3.500.1%1st Place
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9.39Boston University2.840.0%1st Place
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11.69University of Wisconsin2.080.0%1st Place
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13.58University of Notre Dame1.240.0%1st Place
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12.88Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.610.0%1st Place
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16.73University of Texas-1.340.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greiner Hobbs | 14.6% | 12.9% | 9.9% | 10.2% | 10.9% | 10.3% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Baird | 15.0% | 13.4% | 14.6% | 11.7% | 10.3% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Dana Rohde | 6.1% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 9.8% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| John Hanna | 4.8% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 9.3% | 7.2% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 9.5% | 4.8% | 3.2% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| Kristopher Swanson | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 9.9% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 9.5% | 9.0% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 3.2% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Parker Loftus | 5.1% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 3.7% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Stefano Peschiera | 12.0% | 12.3% | 11.2% | 13.1% | 9.2% | 9.9% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mackenzie Bryan | 10.5% | 9.9% | 11.5% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 9.4% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kai Friesecke | 5.0% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 9.6% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 3.3% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Dillon Kilroy | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 4.6% | 6.8% | 14.8% | 22.4% | 33.8% | 5.8% |
| Alfonso Garcia Bringas | 7.3% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 9.0% | 5.6% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 3.1% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Jeremy Herrin | 7.1% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 9.5% | 8.1% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Lydia Grasberger | 3.6% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 9.1% | 10.5% | 11.4% | 8.0% | 4.3% | 1.7% | 0.4% |
| Charles Bocklet | 1.2% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 6.7% | 9.0% | 13.9% | 17.2% | 15.5% | 8.8% | 0.4% |
| Kevin Gallagher | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 5.7% | 8.7% | 11.5% | 24.0% | 28.9% | 3.8% |
| Ben Brough | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 10.7% | 18.8% | 19.7% | 17.5% | 1.8% |
| Aaron Comen | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 2.5% | 6.7% | 87.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.