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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Roger Williams University3.71+3.85vs Predicted
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2Yale University3.93+2.30vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.40+2.89vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy3.22+2.47vs Predicted
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5Old Dominion University2.89+2.41vs Predicted
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6George Washington University2.72+2.25vs Predicted
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7University of California at Santa Barbara2.73+1.10vs Predicted
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8Boston University2.91-0.64vs Predicted
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9College of Charleston3.75-3.97vs Predicted
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10University of Wisconsin2.24-0.45vs Predicted
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11U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.20-4.24vs Predicted
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12Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.18+0.67vs Predicted
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13Texas A&M University at Galveston1.91-2.26vs Predicted
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15Jacksonville University1.88-4.12vs Predicted
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16Western Washington University0.52-1.99vs Predicted
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17University of Texas-1.27-0.57vs Predicted
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18University of Notre Dame0.45-3.70vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.85Roger Williams University3.710.1%1st Place
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4.3Yale University3.930.2%1st Place
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5.89Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.400.1%1st Place
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6.47U. S. Naval Academy3.220.1%1st Place
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7.41Old Dominion University2.890.1%1st Place
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8.25George Washington University2.720.1%1st Place
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8.1University of California at Santa Barbara2.730.1%1st Place
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7.36Boston University2.910.1%1st Place
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5.03College of Charleston3.750.1%1st Place
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9.55University of Wisconsin2.240.0%1st Place
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6.76U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.200.1%1st Place
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12.67Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.180.0%1st Place
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10.74Texas A&M University at Galveston1.910.0%1st Place
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10.88Jacksonville University1.880.0%1st Place
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14.01Western Washington University0.520.0%1st Place
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16.43University of Texas-1.270.0%1st Place
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14.3University of Notre Dame0.450.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martim Anderson | 14.9% | 13.4% | 11.0% | 11.0% | 11.1% | 10.1% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Shawn Harvey | 16.8% | 15.6% | 14.0% | 12.6% | 10.7% | 9.0% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hector Guzman | 9.6% | 9.5% | 10.9% | 9.9% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 7.9% | 8.7% | 7.9% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Peter Hogan | 9.0% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 8.9% | 7.6% | 9.4% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jack Elkin | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 10.8% | 9.4% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 3.4% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Sheerin | 5.0% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 8.4% | 9.6% | 7.4% | 4.8% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Lucas Pierce | 5.4% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 8.9% | 9.5% | 10.4% | 8.5% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Josh Dochoda | 7.0% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 9.0% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 9.6% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 2.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Augie Dale | 10.9% | 13.2% | 13.3% | 11.6% | 12.0% | 9.6% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Charlie Kutschenreuter | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 9.4% | 10.2% | 11.7% | 10.0% | 8.5% | 5.3% | 1.2% | 0.5% |
| Mack Fox | 7.5% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 9.9% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 3.3% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Alyson Crowley | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 9.9% | 16.3% | 22.8% | 14.2% | 1.6% |
| Alex Schwinn | 2.2% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 10.8% | 15.1% | 14.0% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 0.2% |
| Stephan VerHulst | 1.4% | 1.7% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 10.1% | 10.4% | 14.4% | 16.2% | 10.7% | 3.0% | 0.2% |
| Ezekiel Ward | 0.5% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 6.9% | 11.8% | 20.6% | 31.3% | 9.7% |
| Michael Hernandez | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 5.9% | 12.1% | 76.5% |
| Peter Pillari | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 11.4% | 21.5% | 31.5% | 11.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.