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📊 Prediction Accuracy
29.4%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1College of Charleston3.75+3.83vs Predicted
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2George Washington University2.72+5.96vs Predicted
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3Roger Williams University3.71+2.01vs Predicted
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4Old Dominion University2.89+3.59vs Predicted
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5U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.20+1.42vs Predicted
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6Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.40+0.04vs Predicted
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7University of Wisconsin2.24+2.64vs Predicted
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8Yale University3.93-3.63vs Predicted
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9U. S. Naval Academy3.22-2.33vs Predicted
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10Boston University2.91-2.60vs Predicted
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11Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.18+1.68vs Predicted
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12University of California at Santa Barbara2.73-4.00vs Predicted
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14Texas A&M University at Galveston1.91-3.25vs Predicted
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15Western Washington University0.52-0.85vs Predicted
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16Jacksonville University1.88-5.27vs Predicted
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17University of Notre Dame0.45-2.71vs Predicted
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18University of Texas-1.27-1.53vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.83College of Charleston3.750.1%1st Place
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7.96George Washington University2.720.1%1st Place
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5.01Roger Williams University3.710.1%1st Place
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7.59Old Dominion University2.890.1%1st Place
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6.42U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.200.1%1st Place
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6.04Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.400.1%1st Place
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9.64University of Wisconsin2.240.0%1st Place
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4.37Yale University3.930.2%1st Place
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6.67U. S. Naval Academy3.220.1%1st Place
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7.4Boston University2.910.1%1st Place
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12.68Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.180.0%1st Place
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8.0University of California at Santa Barbara2.730.0%1st Place
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10.75Texas A&M University at Galveston1.910.0%1st Place
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14.15Western Washington University0.520.0%1st Place
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10.73Jacksonville University1.880.0%1st Place
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14.29University of Notre Dame0.450.0%1st Place
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16.47University of Texas-1.270.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Augie Dale | 15.0% | 13.6% | 10.4% | 12.5% | 9.5% | 9.9% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Sheerin | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 11.1% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 6.7% | 4.1% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Martim Anderson | 13.0% | 12.2% | 14.4% | 10.1% | 10.4% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jack Elkin | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 10.9% | 8.6% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 3.5% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Mack Fox | 8.9% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 10.7% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 8.9% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hector Guzman | 9.1% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 10.4% | 11.1% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 2.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Charlie Kutschenreuter | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 10.3% | 15.2% | 11.2% | 8.3% | 3.7% | 2.0% | 0.1% |
| Shawn Harvey | 17.2% | 16.5% | 13.3% | 11.6% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Peter Hogan | 6.5% | 6.9% | 9.1% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 10.3% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Josh Dochoda | 5.3% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Alyson Crowley | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 5.6% | 7.7% | 10.4% | 19.1% | 20.6% | 13.7% | 3.2% |
| Lucas Pierce | 4.5% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 4.4% | 1.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Alex Schwinn | 2.3% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 13.7% | 12.9% | 14.5% | 8.5% | 3.3% | 1.2% |
| Ezekiel Ward | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 7.0% | 11.1% | 22.9% | 32.8% | 8.3% |
| Stephan VerHulst | 2.1% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 10.4% | 12.5% | 14.3% | 11.2% | 3.6% | 0.2% |
| Peter Pillari | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 7.3% | 12.4% | 22.9% | 31.3% | 10.3% |
| Michael Hernandez | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 4.8% | 12.3% | 76.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.