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📊 Prediction Accuracy
52.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.40+4.79vs Predicted
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2College of Charleston3.75+2.78vs Predicted
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3Old Dominion University2.89+4.56vs Predicted
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4Yale University3.93+0.48vs Predicted
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5Boston University2.91+2.28vs Predicted
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6Roger Williams University3.71-0.85vs Predicted
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7George Washington University2.72+1.17vs Predicted
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8U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.20-1.57vs Predicted
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9U. S. Naval Academy3.22-2.34vs Predicted
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10Texas A&M University at Galveston1.91+0.64vs Predicted
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11University of Wisconsin2.24-1.26vs Predicted
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12University of California at Santa Barbara2.73-4.03vs Predicted
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13Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.18-0.32vs Predicted
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15Jacksonville University1.88-4.15vs Predicted
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16Western Washington University0.52-1.99vs Predicted
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17University of Notre Dame0.45-2.68vs Predicted
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18University of Texas-1.27-1.51vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.79Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.400.1%1st Place
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4.78College of Charleston3.750.1%1st Place
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7.56Old Dominion University2.890.1%1st Place
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4.48Yale University3.930.2%1st Place
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7.28Boston University2.910.1%1st Place
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5.15Roger Williams University3.710.1%1st Place
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8.17George Washington University2.720.1%1st Place
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6.43U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.200.1%1st Place
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6.66U. S. Naval Academy3.220.1%1st Place
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10.64Texas A&M University at Galveston1.910.0%1st Place
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9.74University of Wisconsin2.240.0%1st Place
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7.97University of California at Santa Barbara2.730.1%1st Place
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12.68Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.180.0%1st Place
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10.85Jacksonville University1.880.0%1st Place
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14.01Western Washington University0.520.0%1st Place
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14.32University of Notre Dame0.450.0%1st Place
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16.49University of Texas-1.270.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hector Guzman | 11.1% | 11.5% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 9.5% | 8.7% | 10.0% | 9.3% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Augie Dale | 13.9% | 13.7% | 13.4% | 11.5% | 10.4% | 8.9% | 8.4% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jack Elkin | 6.2% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 5.1% | 3.1% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Shawn Harvey | 16.8% | 15.1% | 11.9% | 11.6% | 12.3% | 9.3% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Josh Dochoda | 6.0% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 9.9% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Martim Anderson | 11.8% | 10.8% | 12.8% | 11.7% | 10.9% | 10.5% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Sheerin | 5.1% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 11.6% | 10.2% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 1.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Mack Fox | 9.3% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 10.2% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 3.3% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Peter Hogan | 6.4% | 6.4% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 8.9% | 9.1% | 9.1% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alex Schwinn | 2.2% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 12.3% | 13.6% | 11.5% | 8.1% | 4.3% | 0.3% |
| Charlie Kutschenreuter | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 11.0% | 10.3% | 13.2% | 9.4% | 5.9% | 1.8% | 0.2% |
| Lucas Pierce | 5.2% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 9.5% | 6.3% | 4.3% | 1.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Alyson Crowley | 0.9% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 9.2% | 12.4% | 18.7% | 18.0% | 14.2% | 3.9% |
| Stephan VerHulst | 1.1% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 9.2% | 11.6% | 13.8% | 14.2% | 11.4% | 3.3% | 0.4% |
| Ezekiel Ward | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 6.4% | 13.5% | 22.5% | 30.2% | 8.4% |
| Peter Pillari | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 4.2% | 6.5% | 11.7% | 23.1% | 32.9% | 9.9% |
| Michael Hernandez | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 4.8% | 12.3% | 76.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.