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📊 Prediction Accuracy
52.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University3.93+3.30vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy3.22+4.44vs Predicted
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3College of Charleston3.75+1.94vs Predicted
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4Roger Williams University3.71+1.05vs Predicted
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5U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.20+1.41vs Predicted
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6George Washington University2.72+2.26vs Predicted
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7Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.40-1.08vs Predicted
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8Boston University2.91-0.65vs Predicted
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10Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.18+2.77vs Predicted
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11University of Wisconsin2.24-1.41vs Predicted
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12Jacksonville University1.88-1.18vs Predicted
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13University of California at Santa Barbara2.72-4.98vs Predicted
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14Texas A&M University at Galveston1.91-3.27vs Predicted
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15Old Dominion University2.89-7.43vs Predicted
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16University of Notre Dame0.45-1.81vs Predicted
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17Western Washington University0.52-2.82vs Predicted
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18University of Texas-1.27-1.52vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.3Yale University3.930.2%1st Place
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6.44U. S. Naval Academy3.220.1%1st Place
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4.94College of Charleston3.750.1%1st Place
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5.05Roger Williams University3.710.1%1st Place
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6.41U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.200.1%1st Place
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8.26George Washington University2.720.0%1st Place
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5.92Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.400.1%1st Place
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7.35Boston University2.910.1%1st Place
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12.77Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.180.0%1st Place
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9.59University of Wisconsin2.240.0%1st Place
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10.82Jacksonville University1.880.0%1st Place
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8.02University of California at Santa Barbara2.720.0%1st Place
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10.73Texas A&M University at Galveston1.910.0%1st Place
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7.57Old Dominion University2.890.0%1st Place
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14.19University of Notre Dame0.450.0%1st Place
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14.18Western Washington University0.520.0%1st Place
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16.48University of Texas-1.270.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shawn Harvey | 17.5% | 15.1% | 13.5% | 12.5% | 10.6% | 9.2% | 7.2% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Peter Hogan | 8.2% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 10.2% | 9.5% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Augie Dale | 12.4% | 13.1% | 12.5% | 11.6% | 11.8% | 10.1% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Martim Anderson | 13.9% | 12.7% | 10.7% | 11.0% | 11.5% | 9.2% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 5.8% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mack Fox | 8.1% | 8.6% | 9.9% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 9.8% | 10.1% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Sheerin | 4.8% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 11.4% | 9.1% | 7.2% | 3.8% | 2.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Hector Guzman | 9.1% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 10.9% | 10.7% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Josh Dochoda | 7.2% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 6.9% | 9.6% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 2.9% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alyson Crowley | 0.5% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 7.1% | 12.2% | 18.6% | 21.8% | 12.9% | 2.7% |
| Charlie Kutschenreuter | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 8.4% | 9.2% | 10.9% | 10.7% | 10.7% | 8.7% | 4.6% | 1.8% | 0.1% |
| Stephan VerHulst | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 9.9% | 14.9% | 15.3% | 9.8% | 4.3% | 0.4% |
| Sterling Henken | 4.9% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 10.6% | 10.0% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 2.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Alex Schwinn | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 12.4% | 14.5% | 12.8% | 8.5% | 3.9% | 0.9% |
| Jack Elkin | 4.9% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 9.9% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 5.2% | 2.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Peter Pillari | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 12.7% | 21.0% | 33.8% | 9.5% |
| Ezekiel Ward | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 4.9% | 7.0% | 12.7% | 23.8% | 30.2% | 9.1% |
| Michael Hernandez | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 1.1% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 4.3% | 12.2% | 77.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.