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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara2.73+6.78vs Predicted
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2Yale University3.93+2.25vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.40+2.85vs Predicted
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4George Washington University2.72+4.09vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy2.88+2.36vs Predicted
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6Boston University2.91+1.56vs Predicted
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7Old Dominion University2.89+0.51vs Predicted
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8Texas A&M University at Galveston1.91+2.47vs Predicted
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9College of Charleston3.37-2.89vs Predicted
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10Roger Williams University3.71-5.14vs Predicted
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11University of Wisconsin2.24-1.25vs Predicted
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12U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.20-5.53vs Predicted
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13University of Notre Dame0.45+1.24vs Predicted
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14Jacksonville University2.33-4.56vs Predicted
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16Western Washington University0.52-1.98vs Predicted
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17Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.18-4.25vs Predicted
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18University of Texas-1.27-1.50vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.78University of California at Santa Barbara2.730.1%1st Place
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4.25Yale University3.930.2%1st Place
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5.85Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.400.1%1st Place
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8.09George Washington University2.720.1%1st Place
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7.36U. S. Naval Academy2.880.1%1st Place
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7.56Boston University2.910.1%1st Place
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7.51Old Dominion University2.890.1%1st Place
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10.47Texas A&M University at Galveston1.910.0%1st Place
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6.11College of Charleston3.370.1%1st Place
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4.86Roger Williams University3.710.1%1st Place
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9.75University of Wisconsin2.240.0%1st Place
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6.47U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.200.1%1st Place
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14.24University of Notre Dame0.450.0%1st Place
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9.44Jacksonville University2.330.0%1st Place
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14.02Western Washington University0.520.0%1st Place
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12.75Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.180.0%1st Place
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16.5University of Texas-1.270.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Pierce | 6.5% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 9.6% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 7.3% | 3.4% | 1.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Shawn Harvey | 17.4% | 15.5% | 14.5% | 12.8% | 10.5% | 9.1% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hector Guzman | 10.2% | 9.8% | 10.4% | 9.9% | 9.0% | 9.1% | 9.1% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Sheerin | 5.0% | 6.3% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 2.3% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Maxwell Brill | 6.3% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 9.8% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Josh Dochoda | 6.0% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 3.0% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Jack Elkin | 6.8% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 9.2% | 9.5% | 10.2% | 9.0% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 2.6% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Alex Schwinn | 3.6% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 8.3% | 9.6% | 14.8% | 12.9% | 10.1% | 3.8% | 0.2% |
| Alie Toppa | 7.4% | 9.6% | 11.1% | 8.9% | 11.4% | 9.6% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Martim Anderson | 14.3% | 13.9% | 12.9% | 11.7% | 9.2% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Charlie Kutschenreuter | 3.4% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 10.1% | 11.2% | 10.7% | 12.0% | 5.7% | 2.0% | 0.2% |
| Mack Fox | 7.9% | 9.0% | 10.3% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 10.3% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Peter Pillari | 0.5% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 5.3% | 10.1% | 24.3% | 33.4% | 11.0% |
| Andre Guaragna | 2.6% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 10.3% | 13.0% | 10.5% | 9.7% | 3.8% | 1.6% | 0.1% |
| Ezekiel Ward | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 3.1% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 12.2% | 21.9% | 32.0% | 8.6% |
| Alyson Crowley | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 11.7% | 18.6% | 20.6% | 14.2% | 2.3% |
| Michael Hernandez | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 5.2% | 11.5% | 77.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.