← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
81.8%
Within 2 Positions
1.5
Avg Position Diff
11
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1University of Pennsylvania2.79+4.43vs Predicted
-
2Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.60+1.75vs Predicted
-
3Cornell University3.35+1.33vs Predicted
-
4Georgetown University4.51-1.62vs Predicted
-
5Old Dominion University2.87+0.19vs Predicted
-
6George Washington University2.23+0.46vs Predicted
-
7St. Mary's College of Maryland3.48-3.15vs Predicted
-
8Fordham University2.16-1.55vs Predicted
-
9U. S. Naval Academy1.21-0.78vs Predicted
-
10William and Mary-0.04-0.24vs Predicted
-
11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.47-0.82vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
5.43University of Pennsylvania2.790.1%1st Place
-
3.75Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.600.1%1st Place
-
4.33Cornell University3.350.1%1st Place
-
2.38Georgetown University4.510.4%1st Place
-
5.19Old Dominion University2.870.1%1st Place
-
6.46George Washington University2.230.0%1st Place
-
3.85St. Mary's College of Maryland3.480.1%1st Place
-
6.45Fordham University2.160.0%1st Place
-
8.22U. S. Naval Academy1.210.0%1st Place
-
9.76William and Mary-0.040.0%1st Place
-
10.18U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.470.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amanda Johnson | 5.8% | 7.2% | 9.4% | 11.3% | 12.8% | 18.1% | 15.3% | 12.9% | 5.9% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| Caroline Patten | 14.9% | 17.2% | 17.8% | 15.7% | 13.4% | 9.7% | 7.1% | 3.3% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lauren Turner | 12.1% | 10.6% | 14.5% | 15.6% | 16.5% | 13.5% | 9.4% | 6.1% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Sydney Bolger | 35.2% | 27.0% | 17.8% | 10.1% | 5.7% | 3.1% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Corina Radtke | 7.4% | 8.9% | 10.4% | 11.9% | 14.2% | 14.1% | 13.9% | 12.1% | 5.5% | 1.6% | 0.0% |
| Meredith Carroll | 3.8% | 4.3% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 12.1% | 16.2% | 20.4% | 14.0% | 5.6% | 0.8% |
| Mayumi Roller | 14.9% | 16.8% | 15.9% | 17.0% | 12.0% | 10.4% | 7.2% | 3.9% | 1.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ryann Hall | 3.7% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 7.9% | 9.7% | 12.4% | 17.2% | 17.1% | 16.3% | 5.3% | 0.5% |
| Laura Burzenski | 1.3% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 8.4% | 14.9% | 32.8% | 19.9% | 7.5% |
| Catherine Olsen | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 5.7% | 12.6% | 38.7% | 35.4% |
| Jessie Shifalo | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 3.2% | 8.6% | 27.5% | 55.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.