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📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
4.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.08+6.56vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University3.81+6.67vs Predicted
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3Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.77+5.89vs Predicted
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4Dartmouth College3.53+5.60vs Predicted
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5Eckerd College2.72+7.84vs Predicted
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6University of South Florida3.59+3.47vs Predicted
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7Boston College3.73+1.79vs Predicted
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8George Washington University3.41+2.10vs Predicted
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9Yale University4.24-2.39vs Predicted
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10Old Dominion University3.50+0.11vs Predicted
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11U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.45-0.79vs Predicted
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12U. S. Naval Academy3.63-2.35vs Predicted
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13University of Rhode Island3.37-2.74vs Predicted
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14Roger Williams University3.77-5.60vs Predicted
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15Stanford University3.74-6.28vs Predicted
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16College of Charleston4.09-8.65vs Predicted
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17St. Mary's College of Maryland2.96-4.74vs Predicted
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18University of California at Santa Barbara3.06-6.51vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.56Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.080.1%1st Place
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8.67Georgetown University3.810.1%1st Place
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8.89Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.770.1%1st Place
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9.6Dartmouth College3.530.1%1st Place
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12.84Eckerd College2.720.0%1st Place
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9.47University of South Florida3.590.1%1st Place
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8.79Boston College3.730.1%1st Place
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10.1George Washington University3.410.0%1st Place
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6.61Yale University4.240.1%1st Place
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10.11Old Dominion University3.500.1%1st Place
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10.21U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.450.0%1st Place
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9.65U. S. Naval Academy3.630.0%1st Place
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10.26University of Rhode Island3.370.0%1st Place
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8.4Roger Williams University3.770.1%1st Place
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8.72Stanford University3.740.1%1st Place
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7.35College of Charleston4.090.1%1st Place
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12.26St. Mary's College of Maryland2.960.0%1st Place
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11.49University of California at Santa Barbara3.060.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greiner Hobbs | 7.9% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 0.4% |
| Sean Segerblom | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 2.0% |
| Ty Ingram | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 7.2% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 3.6% | 1.5% |
| Christopher Williford | 5.1% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 4.8% |
| Karl Rasmus Sayre | 2.6% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 12.2% | 22.7% |
| Sean Cornell | 5.3% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 4.4% |
| Charles Sinks | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 8.3% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 7.0% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 3.1% |
| Kai Friesecke | 4.7% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 5.6% |
| Nicholas Baird | 9.9% | 9.9% | 9.3% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| Jeremy Herrin | 5.3% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 5.5% |
| Dana Rohde | 4.6% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 5.8% |
| Gary Prieto | 4.9% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 4.3% |
| Sarah Hermus | 4.8% | 5.4% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 7.4% |
| Mackenzie Bryan | 6.5% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 3.3% | 5.1% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 2.2% |
| Will La Dow | 6.9% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 2.5% |
| Stefano Peschiera | 7.4% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 9.5% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 0.6% |
| Edmund Cooper | 3.0% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 4.4% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 9.9% | 13.2% | 15.5% |
| Kristopher Swanson | 3.5% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 10.4% | 11.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.