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📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
4.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland3.69+6.88vs Predicted
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2George Washington University2.72+10.11vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.40+6.11vs Predicted
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4College of Charleston3.75+3.36vs Predicted
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5Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.37+3.94vs Predicted
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6Georgetown University3.39+2.94vs Predicted
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7University of California at Santa Barbara2.73+4.79vs Predicted
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8Old Dominion University2.89+3.01vs Predicted
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9U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.20+0.77vs Predicted
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10U. S. Naval Academy3.22-0.06vs Predicted
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11Eckerd College2.82+0.54vs Predicted
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12Roger Williams University3.71-4.06vs Predicted
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13Yale University3.93-6.44vs Predicted
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14University of Rhode Island3.09-4.04vs Predicted
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15University of South Florida2.92-4.05vs Predicted
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16Stanford University3.56-7.68vs Predicted
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17Dartmouth College3.19-7.05vs Predicted
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18Boston College3.35-9.08vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.88St. Mary's College of Maryland3.690.1%1st Place
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12.11George Washington University2.720.0%1st Place
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9.11Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.400.1%1st Place
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7.36College of Charleston3.750.1%1st Place
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8.94Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.370.1%1st Place
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8.94Georgetown University3.390.1%1st Place
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11.79University of California at Santa Barbara2.730.0%1st Place
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11.01Old Dominion University2.890.0%1st Place
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9.77U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.200.0%1st Place
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9.94U. S. Naval Academy3.220.1%1st Place
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11.54Eckerd College2.820.0%1st Place
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7.94Roger Williams University3.710.1%1st Place
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6.56Yale University3.930.1%1st Place
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9.96University of Rhode Island3.090.0%1st Place
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10.95University of South Florida2.920.0%1st Place
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8.32Stanford University3.560.1%1st Place
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9.95Dartmouth College3.190.0%1st Place
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8.92Boston College3.350.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bradley Adam | 7.2% | 8.4% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 7.4% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 1.7% | 1.2% |
| Andrew Sheerin | 2.1% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 15.0% |
| Hector Guzman | 5.5% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 3.6% | 2.8% |
| Augie Dale | 8.1% | 9.7% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 4.6% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 1.1% |
| Trevor Long | 6.1% | 5.7% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 3.1% | 5.8% | 3.7% |
| William Logue | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 3.7% |
| Lucas Pierce | 3.5% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 10.1% | 10.7% | 13.0% |
| Jack Elkin | 3.7% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 9.9% |
| Mack Fox | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 4.1% |
| Peter Hogan | 5.8% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 5.1% | 4.8% |
| Andrew Schoene | 3.8% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 2.9% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 7.7% | 9.6% | 13.6% |
| Martim Anderson | 7.4% | 8.7% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 4.4% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 2.5% | 4.4% | 2.2% | 0.9% |
| Shawn Harvey | 11.0% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 9.5% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 0.2% |
| Dakota Northrup | 4.9% | 4.1% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 6.1% |
| Andrew Baird | 3.9% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 8.7% | 9.7% |
| Romain Screve | 6.0% | 6.1% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 1.9% |
| Duncan Williford | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 5.3% |
| Wade Waddell | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 7.9% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 3.7% | 3.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.