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📊 Prediction Accuracy
63.6%
Within 2 Positions
2.0
Avg Position Diff
11
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.60+3.05vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University4.51+0.39vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland3.48+1.33vs Predicted
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4Fordham University2.16+3.13vs Predicted
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5George Washington University2.23+1.76vs Predicted
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6Cornell University3.35-1.49vs Predicted
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7U. S. Naval Academy2.71-1.35vs Predicted
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8Old Dominion University2.87-2.58vs Predicted
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9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.47+1.30vs Predicted
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10William and Mary-0.04-0.08vs Predicted
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11University of Pennsylvania2.79-5.46vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.05Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.600.1%1st Place
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2.39Georgetown University4.510.4%1st Place
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4.33St. Mary's College of Maryland3.480.1%1st Place
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7.13Fordham University2.160.0%1st Place
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6.76George Washington University2.230.0%1st Place
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4.51Cornell University3.350.1%1st Place
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5.65U. S. Naval Academy2.710.1%1st Place
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5.42Old Dominion University2.870.1%1st Place
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10.3U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.470.0%1st Place
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9.92William and Mary-0.040.0%1st Place
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5.54University of Pennsylvania2.790.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caroline Patten | 12.8% | 15.7% | 15.2% | 15.7% | 14.5% | 10.4% | 9.7% | 4.3% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Sydney Bolger | 36.8% | 24.4% | 18.1% | 10.3% | 6.2% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mayumi Roller | 11.0% | 13.0% | 16.0% | 14.2% | 12.9% | 14.9% | 10.2% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Ryann Hall | 2.7% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 11.8% | 19.2% | 27.0% | 9.3% | 0.8% |
| Meredith Carroll | 4.0% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 13.5% | 17.5% | 24.7% | 6.0% | 1.1% |
| Lauren Turner | 11.4% | 13.1% | 13.6% | 13.1% | 13.4% | 13.2% | 10.0% | 6.9% | 4.4% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Killian Corbishley | 7.2% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 11.2% | 10.9% | 12.9% | 13.4% | 15.9% | 10.4% | 2.7% | 0.1% |
| Corina Radtke | 7.5% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 12.8% | 12.0% | 12.7% | 13.7% | 12.0% | 9.7% | 2.4% | 0.0% |
| Jessie Shifalo | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 28.5% | 61.1% |
| Catherine Olsen | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 3.5% | 6.6% | 47.1% | 36.4% |
| Amanda Johnson | 5.8% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 9.7% | 12.2% | 15.0% | 13.0% | 13.3% | 9.3% | 2.5% | 0.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.