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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
4.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy3.22+8.70vs Predicted
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2College of Charleston3.75+5.41vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University3.39+6.03vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland3.69+3.44vs Predicted
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5University of Rhode Island2.93+5.59vs Predicted
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6Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.37+2.78vs Predicted
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7Old Dominion University2.89+3.87vs Predicted
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8Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.40+0.68vs Predicted
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9Dartmouth College3.19+0.62vs Predicted
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10University of California at Santa Barbara2.73+1.85vs Predicted
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11Roger Williams University3.71-3.45vs Predicted
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12Yale University3.93-5.13vs Predicted
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13George Washington University2.72-1.51vs Predicted
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14U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.20-4.74vs Predicted
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15Stanford University3.56-7.04vs Predicted
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16Eckerd College2.82-4.75vs Predicted
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17University of South Florida2.40-3.95vs Predicted
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18Boston College3.15-8.40vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.7U. S. Naval Academy3.220.1%1st Place
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7.41College of Charleston3.750.1%1st Place
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9.03Georgetown University3.390.1%1st Place
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7.44St. Mary's College of Maryland3.690.1%1st Place
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10.59University of Rhode Island2.930.0%1st Place
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8.78Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.370.1%1st Place
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10.87Old Dominion University2.890.0%1st Place
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8.68Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.400.1%1st Place
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9.62Dartmouth College3.190.0%1st Place
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11.85University of California at Santa Barbara2.730.0%1st Place
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7.55Roger Williams University3.710.1%1st Place
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6.87Yale University3.930.1%1st Place
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11.49George Washington University2.720.0%1st Place
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9.26U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.200.1%1st Place
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7.96Stanford University3.560.1%1st Place
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11.25Eckerd College2.820.0%1st Place
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13.05University of South Florida2.400.0%1st Place
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9.6Boston College3.150.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peter Hogan | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 7.2% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 4.1% |
| Augie Dale | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| William Logue | 5.8% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 3.2% | 2.1% |
| Bradley Adam | 8.3% | 9.4% | 8.9% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 1.1% |
| Luke Ingalls | 4.3% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 7.7% |
| Trevor Long | 6.1% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 3.1% |
| Jack Elkin | 4.3% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 2.9% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 8.6% |
| Hector Guzman | 6.0% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 3.3% | 1.7% |
| Duncan Williford | 4.4% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 3.1% |
| Lucas Pierce | 3.6% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 12.4% | 12.2% |
| Martim Anderson | 8.6% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 1.1% |
| Shawn Harvey | 9.6% | 10.3% | 9.7% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.5% |
| Andrew Sheerin | 3.7% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 12.3% |
| Mack Fox | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 3.0% |
| Romain Screve | 7.6% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 2.3% | 1.2% |
| Andrew Schoene | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 7.4% | 10.4% | 10.1% |
| Michael Sanandajian | 2.5% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 10.7% | 10.6% | 23.7% |
| Sophia Reineke | 4.8% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 7.7% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 4.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.