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📊 Prediction Accuracy
72.7%
Within 2 Positions
1.4
Avg Position Diff
11
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland3.48+3.24vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University4.51+0.40vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.60+1.10vs Predicted
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4University of Pennsylvania2.79+1.81vs Predicted
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5Cornell University3.35-0.55vs Predicted
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6Fordham University2.16+0.91vs Predicted
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7George Washington University2.23-0.35vs Predicted
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8U. S. Naval Academy2.71-2.36vs Predicted
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9Old Dominion University2.87-3.45vs Predicted
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10U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.47+0.34vs Predicted
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11William and Mary-0.04-1.09vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.24St. Mary's College of Maryland3.480.1%1st Place
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2.4Georgetown University4.510.4%1st Place
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4.1Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.600.1%1st Place
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5.81University of Pennsylvania2.790.1%1st Place
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4.45Cornell University3.350.1%1st Place
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6.91Fordham University2.160.0%1st Place
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6.65George Washington University2.230.0%1st Place
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5.64U. S. Naval Academy2.710.1%1st Place
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5.55Old Dominion University2.870.1%1st Place
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10.34U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.470.0%1st Place
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9.91William and Mary-0.040.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mayumi Roller | 11.1% | 14.1% | 15.3% | 16.0% | 13.2% | 14.1% | 8.7% | 4.5% | 2.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Sydney Bolger | 37.1% | 24.7% | 17.0% | 10.4% | 6.2% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Caroline Patten | 12.9% | 15.2% | 15.7% | 14.0% | 14.7% | 12.1% | 8.3% | 5.1% | 1.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Amanda Johnson | 5.6% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 9.9% | 10.9% | 14.2% | 14.7% | 14.8% | 11.1% | 3.6% | 0.1% |
| Lauren Turner | 11.3% | 13.6% | 14.3% | 13.5% | 12.8% | 12.8% | 9.7% | 7.4% | 4.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Ryann Hall | 3.2% | 4.3% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 13.1% | 17.6% | 23.4% | 9.8% | 1.0% |
| Meredith Carroll | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 9.6% | 8.4% | 14.5% | 16.6% | 22.7% | 6.3% | 0.8% |
| Killian Corbishley | 6.7% | 6.8% | 9.8% | 11.1% | 11.2% | 12.8% | 13.3% | 13.2% | 12.4% | 2.5% | 0.2% |
| Corina Radtke | 6.7% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 11.3% | 12.6% | 13.1% | 11.9% | 14.7% | 10.1% | 2.3% | 0.4% |
| Jessie Shifalo | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 4.2% | 28.9% | 60.8% |
| Catherine Olsen | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 7.6% | 45.6% | 36.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.