Race 1A

mt-hope-bay-invite

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

60.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Tyler Mowry 12.7% 11.1% 12.6% 11.6% 10.8% 9.4% 6.9% 7.8% 6.4% 3.4% 2.9% 2.4% 1.1% 0.9% 0.0%
Thomas Harden 16.7% 18.2% 12.0% 11.8% 12.2% 8.4% 5.9% 5.8% 3.9% 2.3% 2.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Grant Gridley 12.9% 11.5% 11.6% 11.1% 9.3% 10.7% 8.9% 8.4% 5.5% 4.7% 4.0% 0.7% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0%
Samuel Merson 13.5% 13.6% 13.7% 10.0% 9.1% 10.0% 8.7% 7.2% 5.3% 4.1% 2.6% 1.4% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0%
Liam Ballantyne 6.5% 5.7% 7.6% 6.1% 7.8% 8.6% 8.5% 8.1% 10.6% 8.3% 8.5% 6.5% 4.5% 2.1% 0.6%
Gabriel Hannon 6.3% 6.9% 6.7% 6.8% 9.1% 8.9% 9.3% 10.7% 8.8% 9.0% 6.7% 6.2% 3.0% 1.0% 0.6%
Joey Lark 6.2% 3.9% 5.7% 5.7% 6.6% 6.2% 8.7% 8.1% 8.8% 9.4% 9.8% 8.7% 7.1% 3.6% 1.5%
Christopher Pearson 5.7% 5.7% 7.0% 7.5% 6.9% 7.6% 8.0% 8.8% 8.2% 9.1% 10.8% 6.6% 5.2% 2.4% 0.5%
Nicholas Memoli 2.0% 2.5% 3.4% 3.6% 4.7% 4.6% 6.1% 5.9% 7.4% 9.6% 9.8% 13.2% 13.8% 9.7% 3.7%
Martin Tipton 4.2% 4.8% 4.7% 6.1% 6.0% 7.6% 8.1% 8.0% 8.7% 9.2% 10.0% 10.5% 6.9% 3.9% 1.3%
Andrew Reynolds 0.8% 1.4% 0.7% 0.6% 0.8% 1.8% 1.7% 1.6% 2.6% 3.2% 5.4% 6.7% 12.0% 22.8% 37.9%
Anne Cathrine Longo 0.9% 0.6% 0.8% 0.9% 1.1% 1.0% 0.8% 1.8% 2.7% 3.0% 4.0% 6.9% 13.9% 24.3% 37.3%
Nathan Drezner 0.9% 1.0% 1.9% 2.7% 2.1% 2.5% 3.4% 3.9% 3.8% 4.6% 5.9% 12.6% 18.0% 21.8% 14.9%
Caroline King 4.0% 4.5% 3.9% 5.7% 6.3% 5.5% 6.4% 6.5% 7.8% 11.3% 10.0% 10.8% 10.3% 5.6% 1.4%
Austen Freda 6.7% 8.6% 7.7% 9.8% 7.2% 7.2% 8.6% 7.4% 9.5% 8.8% 7.6% 6.2% 3.0% 1.4% 0.3%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.