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📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Roger Williams University2.33+3.72vs Predicted
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2Tufts University1.57+4.91vs Predicted
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3Brown University2.22+1.93vs Predicted
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4University of Rhode Island1.73+2.55vs Predicted
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5University of Connecticut0.70+4.88vs Predicted
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6University of Vermont1.74+0.52vs Predicted
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7Salve Regina University1.38+0.67vs Predicted
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8Salve Regina University1.10+0.61vs Predicted
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9U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.76-2.56vs Predicted
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10Roger Williams University2.13-4.59vs Predicted
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11Tufts University1.77-4.54vs Predicted
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12McGill University0.55-1.51vs Predicted
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13Wentworth Institute of Technology0.29-1.79vs Predicted
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14Yale University0.23-2.80vs Predicted
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15Bentley University-0.58-2.00vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.72Roger Williams University2.330.2%1st Place
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6.91Tufts University1.570.1%1st Place
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4.93Brown University2.220.1%1st Place
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6.55University of Rhode Island1.730.1%1st Place
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9.88University of Connecticut0.700.0%1st Place
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6.52University of Vermont1.740.1%1st Place
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7.67Salve Regina University1.380.1%1st Place
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8.61Salve Regina University1.100.0%1st Place
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6.44U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.760.1%1st Place
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5.41Roger Williams University2.130.1%1st Place
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6.46Tufts University1.770.1%1st Place
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10.49McGill University0.550.0%1st Place
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11.21Wentworth Institute of Technology0.290.0%1st Place
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11.2Yale University0.230.0%1st Place
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13.0Bentley University-0.580.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Walton | 15.5% | 14.0% | 12.7% | 11.1% | 10.4% | 9.6% | 8.2% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Andrew Savage | 6.5% | 7.5% | 9.3% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 0.6% |
| Jed Bell | 14.9% | 12.4% | 12.5% | 10.3% | 9.2% | 10.3% | 9.1% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Zachary Champney | 8.0% | 9.3% | 7.1% | 10.0% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 10.3% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 0.3% |
| Ellen Fuller | 3.2% | 2.6% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 12.3% | 13.2% | 13.2% | 6.7% |
| Peter Schneider | 8.1% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 9.5% | 9.9% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 4.6% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Anthony Root | 7.4% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 9.0% | 7.7% | 9.9% | 9.5% | 9.6% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 3.7% | 0.8% |
| Lucie Ford | 4.8% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 9.6% | 11.0% | 10.2% | 9.1% | 6.6% | 2.2% |
| Caelan Juckniess | 7.4% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 10.1% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 9.5% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 0.1% |
| Riley Read | 11.0% | 11.0% | 11.5% | 11.7% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Abbie Carlson | 7.6% | 10.7% | 7.9% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 4.8% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 0.6% |
| John Wittmann | 2.2% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 11.5% | 15.9% | 14.1% | 8.9% |
| John Holt | 1.2% | 1.7% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 8.6% | 10.0% | 16.8% | 16.3% | 16.8% |
| Adam Wolnikowski | 1.7% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 8.2% | 10.8% | 14.1% | 19.2% | 15.4% |
| Alexander Kostas | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 3.9% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 17.5% | 47.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.