Race 5B

mt-hope-bay-invite

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

46.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Caelan Juckniess 9.8% 8.6% 9.0% 8.5% 7.1% 8.6% 8.7% 7.9% 8.6% 7.9% 6.1% 4.6% 2.3% 1.3% 1.0%
Peter Schneider 7.7% 9.7% 9.3% 9.6% 8.7% 7.9% 8.5% 8.4% 7.9% 7.2% 6.4% 4.6% 2.4% 1.5% 0.2%
Jed Bell 13.4% 13.4% 12.0% 11.1% 10.2% 8.6% 9.6% 7.2% 5.7% 4.0% 2.5% 1.9% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
John Walton 15.4% 15.7% 11.7% 11.5% 8.2% 9.7% 8.7% 5.7% 6.2% 2.7% 1.9% 1.9% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0%
Andrew Savage 7.6% 8.0% 6.8% 6.0% 6.9% 7.7% 9.0% 8.0% 9.9% 8.0% 8.4% 5.2% 5.0% 3.1% 0.4%
Ellen Fuller 2.5% 3.3% 2.9% 3.6% 4.0% 4.0% 5.1% 6.1% 6.4% 7.8% 10.9% 11.6% 14.4% 11.6% 5.8%
Riley Read 12.8% 10.5% 12.3% 10.5% 10.6% 10.2% 8.3% 6.3% 5.9% 5.4% 3.4% 2.2% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1%
Abbie Carlson 8.8% 8.3% 8.4% 8.8% 9.7% 7.8% 8.5% 8.1% 7.1% 8.3% 6.7% 4.5% 3.4% 1.1% 0.5%
Anthony Root 5.1% 5.3% 6.6% 7.6% 7.7% 7.2% 8.3% 9.6% 6.9% 9.4% 8.9% 7.2% 6.5% 3.0% 0.7%
Zachary Champney 7.3% 6.6% 9.4% 9.1% 8.5% 10.0% 8.1% 9.1% 8.2% 8.0% 4.8% 5.3% 3.6% 1.7% 0.3%
John Wittmann 2.6% 2.4% 2.4% 3.3% 3.5% 4.1% 3.9% 5.7% 6.8% 6.9% 9.0% 11.5% 15.4% 12.4% 10.1%
Lucie Ford 3.4% 3.7% 4.4% 5.4% 6.0% 6.7% 5.1% 6.2% 8.0% 10.3% 11.4% 11.5% 8.9% 6.9% 2.1%
John Holt 1.5% 1.8% 2.0% 2.2% 4.1% 2.9% 2.7% 4.3% 4.8% 5.6% 8.3% 9.9% 14.8% 18.5% 16.6%
Adam Wolnikowski 1.5% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9% 3.1% 2.7% 3.5% 5.2% 5.5% 5.9% 7.8% 10.3% 12.9% 21.0% 14.9%
Alexander Kostas 0.6% 0.8% 0.9% 0.9% 1.7% 1.9% 2.0% 2.2% 2.1% 2.6% 3.5% 7.8% 8.6% 17.1% 47.3%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.