Race 11B

mt-hope-bay-invite

← Back to Regatta

📊 Prediction Accuracy

40.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Charlie Hibben 18.3% 18.1% 13.0% 12.3% 10.6% 8.1% 6.3% 4.8% 3.6% 1.9% 1.7% 0.6% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0%
Peter Schneider 7.1% 8.0% 10.1% 9.6% 9.0% 8.7% 7.9% 8.6% 8.8% 8.0% 5.6% 4.3% 2.9% 1.2% 0.2%
Kylie Castellano 10.3% 9.1% 10.1% 10.9% 10.5% 9.5% 9.2% 10.5% 6.8% 5.3% 4.2% 2.7% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0%
Riley Read 11.7% 12.6% 9.7% 9.9% 9.4% 9.7% 8.4% 10.1% 7.2% 5.3% 3.7% 1.4% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0%
John Wittmann 2.4% 2.7% 2.6% 2.7% 3.8% 4.2% 5.4% 5.7% 6.3% 6.6% 9.8% 13.9% 14.4% 11.7% 7.8%
Anthony Root 4.4% 5.6% 5.7% 6.4% 6.7% 6.8% 9.2% 8.4% 10.7% 10.1% 8.4% 8.4% 6.6% 1.8% 0.8%
Lucie Ford 5.3% 3.4% 4.6% 4.5% 5.2% 5.8% 7.4% 8.1% 10.0% 9.9% 9.9% 10.5% 9.5% 3.7% 2.2%
John Walton 13.5% 12.5% 13.0% 10.0% 11.3% 9.8% 8.3% 7.1% 5.6% 4.4% 2.2% 1.5% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0%
Caelan Juckniess 6.8% 7.2% 9.0% 9.3% 8.8% 10.3% 8.1% 8.8% 9.9% 8.8% 5.8% 4.5% 1.5% 0.9% 0.3%
Blaire McCarthy 12.2% 11.4% 12.0% 12.4% 10.8% 9.9% 8.8% 6.6% 6.1% 4.2% 2.9% 2.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1%
Danielle Elson 1.3% 2.1% 1.2% 1.8% 2.5% 3.6% 3.4% 4.9% 3.9% 7.5% 9.3% 11.0% 12.1% 18.2% 17.2%
John Duncan 3.3% 3.2% 3.7% 4.3% 5.6% 7.1% 7.1% 6.6% 9.1% 9.9% 12.4% 10.4% 8.9% 6.5% 1.9%
Adam Wolnikowski 1.0% 1.4% 2.3% 2.9% 2.4% 2.5% 3.6% 3.5% 4.6% 7.4% 8.4% 10.7% 16.1% 18.8% 14.4%
Alexander Kostas 0.8% 0.8% 0.6% 0.5% 0.9% 1.1% 2.2% 2.3% 2.1% 3.5% 5.2% 8.4% 9.9% 18.1% 43.6%
John Holt 1.6% 1.9% 2.4% 2.5% 2.5% 2.9% 4.7% 4.0% 5.3% 7.2% 10.5% 9.5% 15.3% 18.2% 11.5%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.