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📊 Prediction Accuracy
63.6%
Within 2 Positions
1.6
Avg Position Diff
11
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University2.81+3.21vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.97+1.73vs Predicted
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3Old Dominion University3.17+0.51vs Predicted
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4Cornell University1.81+2.58vs Predicted
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5St. Mary's College of Maryland1.98+0.98vs Predicted
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6U. S. Naval Academy2.68-1.53vs Predicted
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7George Washington University1.74-0.64vs Predicted
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8University of Pennsylvania2.34-2.92vs Predicted
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9Fordham University1.20-1.25vs Predicted
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10William and Mary0.24-0.60vs Predicted
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11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.49-2.06vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.21Georgetown University2.810.1%1st Place
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3.73Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.970.2%1st Place
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3.51Old Dominion University3.170.2%1st Place
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6.58Cornell University1.810.0%1st Place
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5.98St. Mary's College of Maryland1.980.1%1st Place
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4.47U. S. Naval Academy2.680.1%1st Place
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6.36George Washington University1.740.1%1st Place
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5.08University of Pennsylvania2.340.1%1st Place
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7.75Fordham University1.200.0%1st Place
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9.4William and Mary0.240.0%1st Place
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8.94U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.490.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lauren Burke | 13.7% | 13.9% | 15.1% | 14.4% | 12.9% | 12.1% | 9.6% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| Sarah Yuskaitis | 19.3% | 18.8% | 13.6% | 13.4% | 11.0% | 10.1% | 8.1% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| Katie Cummings | 20.3% | 18.1% | 17.1% | 13.5% | 12.7% | 8.6% | 5.5% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Alison Love | 4.8% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 9.6% | 14.3% | 15.3% | 14.2% | 9.7% | 4.1% |
| Ainsley Thomson | 6.5% | 7.3% | 9.4% | 8.3% | 9.6% | 12.2% | 12.2% | 13.9% | 10.3% | 8.5% | 1.8% |
| Sara Burke | 13.2% | 14.1% | 11.9% | 13.5% | 14.1% | 10.5% | 9.1% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 2.1% | 0.4% |
| Kathleen Hilton | 6.2% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 8.9% | 11.6% | 11.5% | 13.8% | 13.6% | 10.6% | 2.9% |
| Emma Kofmehl | 10.2% | 9.9% | 11.8% | 12.5% | 12.1% | 10.5% | 10.6% | 10.4% | 8.8% | 2.6% | 0.6% |
| Amanda Tooker | 3.5% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 9.3% | 14.2% | 17.5% | 19.2% | 12.9% |
| Liz Wolfe | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 6.6% | 11.3% | 18.7% | 47.0% |
| Maggy Ashton | 1.2% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 9.5% | 13.5% | 26.8% | 29.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.