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📊 Prediction Accuracy
72.7%
Within 2 Positions
1.5
Avg Position Diff
11
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University2.81+3.22vs Predicted
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2Old Dominion University3.17+1.38vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.97+0.91vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland1.98+2.19vs Predicted
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5University of Pennsylvania2.34+0.22vs Predicted
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6U. S. Naval Academy2.68-1.56vs Predicted
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7Cornell University1.81-0.82vs Predicted
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8Fordham University1.20-0.37vs Predicted
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9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.49+0.08vs Predicted
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10George Washington University1.74-3.59vs Predicted
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11William and Mary0.24-1.67vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.22Georgetown University2.810.1%1st Place
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3.38Old Dominion University3.170.2%1st Place
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3.91Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.970.2%1st Place
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6.19St. Mary's College of Maryland1.980.1%1st Place
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5.22University of Pennsylvania2.340.1%1st Place
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4.44U. S. Naval Academy2.680.1%1st Place
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6.18Cornell University1.810.1%1st Place
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7.63Fordham University1.200.0%1st Place
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9.08U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.490.0%1st Place
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6.41George Washington University1.740.1%1st Place
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9.33William and Mary0.240.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lauren Burke | 11.9% | 15.8% | 14.6% | 14.8% | 12.5% | 12.4% | 9.5% | 5.0% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Katie Cummings | 23.5% | 18.6% | 16.8% | 12.8% | 10.6% | 7.9% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Sarah Yuskaitis | 16.2% | 16.6% | 16.2% | 13.5% | 12.1% | 10.4% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Ainsley Thomson | 5.8% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 9.4% | 12.3% | 14.7% | 14.1% | 11.2% | 8.2% | 2.5% |
| Emma Kofmehl | 9.7% | 9.4% | 12.0% | 11.7% | 11.1% | 10.5% | 11.7% | 11.0% | 7.5% | 4.7% | 0.7% |
| Sara Burke | 13.8% | 13.9% | 13.1% | 12.1% | 13.7% | 11.2% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 4.3% | 1.9% | 0.5% |
| Alison Love | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 8.5% | 11.7% | 10.7% | 10.8% | 14.9% | 12.1% | 8.0% | 3.5% |
| Amanda Tooker | 3.7% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 10.9% | 12.3% | 17.5% | 19.5% | 11.1% |
| Maggy Ashton | 1.3% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 14.8% | 23.0% | 36.5% |
| Kathleen Hilton | 6.6% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 10.0% | 13.5% | 13.2% | 14.6% | 10.1% | 3.4% |
| Liz Wolfe | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 6.7% | 12.9% | 22.7% | 41.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.