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📊 Prediction Accuracy
53.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of South Florida2.25+1.94vs Predicted
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2University of Pennsylvania2.17+1.05vs Predicted
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3Webb Institute-0.47+5.91vs Predicted
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5Washington College0.80+0.91vs Predicted
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6SUNY Stony Brook0.90-0.43vs Predicted
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7Drexel University0.86-1.28vs Predicted
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8Villanova University1.52-3.78vs Predicted
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9Stevens Institute of Technology1.15-3.93vs Predicted
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10Monmouth University-0.46-1.14vs Predicted
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11Ocean County College-0.60-1.91vs Predicted
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13University of Pittsburgh-0.62-4.00vs Predicted
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14University of Delaware-1.05-3.95vs Predicted
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15Penn State University-3.18-2.41vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.94University of South Florida2.250.3%1st Place
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3.05University of Pennsylvania2.170.3%1st Place
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8.91Webb Institute-0.470.0%1st Place
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5.91Washington College0.800.1%1st Place
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5.57SUNY Stony Brook0.900.1%1st Place
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5.72Drexel University0.860.1%1st Place
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4.22Villanova University1.520.1%1st Place
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5.07Stevens Institute of Technology1.150.1%1st Place
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8.86Monmouth University-0.460.0%1st Place
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9.09Ocean County College-0.600.0%1st Place
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9.0University of Pittsburgh-0.620.0%1st Place
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10.05University of Delaware-1.050.0%1st Place
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12.59Penn State University-3.180.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jensen McTighe | 25.4% | 24.5% | 17.0% | 12.9% | 10.6% | 5.6% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Porter Killian | 25.8% | 20.9% | 18.0% | 13.7% | 9.5% | 6.3% | 3.8% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Declan Gaylo | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 9.0% | 17.1% | 15.7% | 17.9% | 13.1% | 1.7% |
| William Sunkler | 6.0% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 11.1% | 12.2% | 10.6% | 14.9% | 11.8% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Manfredi | 7.7% | 7.6% | 9.6% | 11.5% | 11.8% | 12.0% | 13.9% | 11.3% | 8.3% | 3.9% | 2.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Jacob Pollak | 7.2% | 7.4% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 11.9% | 12.8% | 12.6% | 12.1% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 2.3% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Erin McGarry | 13.8% | 14.5% | 14.1% | 13.6% | 13.7% | 12.1% | 9.1% | 5.4% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew O'Brien | 8.4% | 9.2% | 12.6% | 13.3% | 11.8% | 14.6% | 13.3% | 8.4% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Veronica Lane | 1.4% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 9.5% | 14.6% | 16.1% | 17.2% | 14.9% | 1.9% |
| Luke Dunton | 1.1% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 10.1% | 14.0% | 15.7% | 17.6% | 16.7% | 3.4% |
| Bryce Merrill | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 3.2% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 7.2% | 11.9% | 11.8% | 16.6% | 17.5% | 15.0% | 2.4% |
| Cathleen Murphy | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 6.9% | 9.6% | 12.3% | 18.8% | 31.5% | 6.2% |
| Kevin Batchelor | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 6.8% | 84.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.