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📊 Prediction Accuracy
52.9%
Within 2 Positions
1.8
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University3.53+2.57vs Predicted
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2Old Dominion University2.89+3.15vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University3.69+0.30vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland2.32+2.85vs Predicted
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5George Washington University2.72+0.66vs Predicted
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6Hampton University2.26+1.01vs Predicted
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7Georgetown University2.16+0.35vs Predicted
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8SUNY Maritime College2.14-0.83vs Predicted
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9SUNY Maritime College1.69-0.50vs Predicted
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10Virginia Tech0.59+1.56vs Predicted
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11Christopher Newport University1.89-3.03vs Predicted
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12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.84-3.84vs Predicted
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13University of Maryland0.45-1.10vs Predicted
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14Virginia Tech0.59-2.44vs Predicted
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15Catholic University of America-0.34-1.56vs Predicted
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16William and Mary-0.28-2.54vs Predicted
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17American University-1.27-2.03vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.57Georgetown University3.530.2%1st Place
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5.15Old Dominion University2.890.1%1st Place
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3.3Georgetown University3.690.2%1st Place
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6.85St. Mary's College of Maryland2.320.1%1st Place
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5.66George Washington University2.720.1%1st Place
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7.01Hampton University2.260.1%1st Place
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7.35Georgetown University2.160.1%1st Place
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7.17SUNY Maritime College2.140.0%1st Place
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8.5SUNY Maritime College1.690.0%1st Place
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11.56Virginia Tech0.590.0%1st Place
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7.97Christopher Newport University1.890.0%1st Place
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8.16U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.840.0%1st Place
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11.9University of Maryland0.450.0%1st Place
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11.56Virginia Tech0.590.0%1st Place
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13.44Catholic University of America-0.340.0%1st Place
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13.46William and Mary-0.280.0%1st Place
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14.97American University-1.270.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Reiter | 21.4% | 19.1% | 16.9% | 12.8% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 3.8% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jack Elkin | 11.2% | 11.7% | 12.4% | 11.5% | 10.6% | 9.7% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 6.9% | 4.7% | 2.7% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| JC Hermus | 24.4% | 19.3% | 17.7% | 11.6% | 12.3% | 6.6% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Joshua Paper | 5.2% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 10.5% | 10.3% | 9.4% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 5.1% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Sheerin | 8.9% | 7.6% | 11.3% | 11.6% | 10.8% | 11.8% | 10.6% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Luca Taglialegne | 5.2% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 10.8% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 3.2% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Noah Kelleher | 5.6% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 10.0% | 9.8% | 9.0% | 11.1% | 9.3% | 6.5% | 4.3% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Lawless | 4.8% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 9.6% | 9.5% | 11.0% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 6.0% | 3.8% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hunter Kahler | 3.3% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 6.7% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 9.9% | 11.6% | 11.9% | 10.8% | 5.7% | 3.4% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Magno | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 6.6% | 9.0% | 13.9% | 20.6% | 18.6% | 9.2% | 2.8% | 0.0% |
| Spencer Charney | 4.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 9.5% | 11.5% | 10.6% | 10.6% | 9.6% | 5.2% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kieran Cullen | 3.2% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 9.3% | 9.6% | 11.5% | 9.4% | 10.9% | 6.0% | 2.3% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Derek Safieh | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 9.6% | 12.9% | 19.3% | 18.9% | 12.4% | 4.2% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Magno | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 6.6% | 9.0% | 13.9% | 20.6% | 18.6% | 9.2% | 2.8% | 0.0% |
| Grace Wagner | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 12.6% | 21.2% | 27.2% | 16.7% | 0.0% |
| Alexander Holderness | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 4.2% | 6.1% | 11.7% | 21.7% | 27.8% | 17.4% | 0.0% |
| Cala Coffman | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 9.2% | 20.0% | 58.6% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.