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📊 Prediction Accuracy
56.2%
Within 2 Positions
1.7
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University3.69+2.16vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University3.53+1.33vs Predicted
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3George Washington University2.72+2.22vs Predicted
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4Old Dominion University2.89+0.91vs Predicted
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5U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.84+2.70vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland2.32+0.38vs Predicted
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7Georgetown University2.16-0.26vs Predicted
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8SUNY Maritime College2.14-1.13vs Predicted
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9Hampton University2.26-2.51vs Predicted
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10SUNY Maritime College1.69-1.89vs Predicted
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11Catholic University of America-0.34+1.58vs Predicted
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12University of Maryland0.45-0.76vs Predicted
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13Virginia Tech0.59-2.10vs Predicted
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14Virginia Tech0.59-3.10vs Predicted
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15American University-1.27-1.04vs Predicted
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16William and Mary-0.28-3.58vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.16Georgetown University3.690.3%1st Place
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3.33Georgetown University3.530.2%1st Place
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5.22George Washington University2.720.1%1st Place
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4.91Old Dominion University2.890.1%1st Place
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7.7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.840.0%1st Place
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6.38St. Mary's College of Maryland2.320.0%1st Place
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6.74Georgetown University2.160.1%1st Place
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6.87SUNY Maritime College2.140.0%1st Place
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6.49Hampton University2.260.1%1st Place
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8.11SUNY Maritime College1.690.0%1st Place
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12.58Catholic University of America-0.340.0%1st Place
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11.24University of Maryland0.450.0%1st Place
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10.9Virginia Tech0.590.0%1st Place
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10.9Virginia Tech0.590.0%1st Place
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13.96American University-1.270.0%1st Place
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12.42William and Mary-0.280.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JC Hermus | 25.4% | 21.6% | 17.2% | 12.6% | 9.1% | 6.6% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andy Reiter | 23.2% | 21.1% | 17.0% | 11.1% | 10.3% | 8.2% | 4.4% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Sheerin | 9.3% | 9.9% | 12.6% | 11.1% | 11.3% | 13.3% | 9.6% | 9.4% | 6.5% | 4.7% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jack Elkin | 10.3% | 13.2% | 12.1% | 12.5% | 12.0% | 9.7% | 11.3% | 8.2% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kieran Cullen | 4.4% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 10.0% | 11.8% | 13.8% | 13.0% | 5.8% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Joshua Paper | 4.8% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 10.7% | 12.6% | 12.2% | 11.2% | 9.4% | 7.8% | 5.6% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Noah Kelleher | 6.5% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 9.5% | 10.1% | 11.8% | 10.5% | 10.6% | 9.6% | 6.8% | 3.5% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Lawless | 4.8% | 4.4% | 7.5% | 10.1% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 10.6% | 12.0% | 12.4% | 9.1% | 7.0% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Luca Taglialegne | 5.5% | 4.9% | 8.3% | 9.1% | 12.1% | 8.9% | 10.7% | 11.1% | 11.8% | 9.2% | 4.8% | 2.8% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hunter Kahler | 3.2% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 9.9% | 12.1% | 14.8% | 12.0% | 7.1% | 4.4% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Grace Wagner | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 2.8% | 4.7% | 8.1% | 12.4% | 19.4% | 26.8% | 19.0% | 0.0% |
| Derek Safieh | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 8.5% | 13.4% | 20.1% | 22.4% | 11.7% | 4.1% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Magno | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 8.3% | 14.8% | 21.7% | 16.5% | 11.8% | 3.5% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Magno | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 8.3% | 14.8% | 21.7% | 16.5% | 11.8% | 3.5% | 0.0% |
| Cala Coffman | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 3.2% | 5.5% | 9.4% | 20.6% | 56.5% | 0.0% |
| Alexander Holderness | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 7.7% | 14.6% | 20.1% | 26.5% | 16.3% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.