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📊 Prediction Accuracy
58.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University3.38+1.52vs Predicted
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2George Washington University2.68+1.82vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy2.49+1.26vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland1.80+2.00vs Predicted
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5Hampton University0.69+3.97vs Predicted
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6Georgetown University2.04-0.62vs Predicted
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7Christopher Newport University1.11+0.89vs Predicted
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8Virginia Tech0.47+1.44vs Predicted
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9Old Dominion University1.51-2.32vs Predicted
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10Virginia Tech0.47-0.56vs Predicted
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11American University-1.94+3.73vs Predicted
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12William and Mary-0.76+0.49vs Predicted
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13University of Maryland-0.97+0.08vs Predicted
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14SUNY Maritime College0.49-4.52vs Predicted
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15SUNY Maritime College1.44-8.21vs Predicted
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16U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.74-3.38vs Predicted
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17Catholic University of America-0.38-5.16vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.52Georgetown University3.380.3%1st Place
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3.82George Washington University2.680.2%1st Place
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4.26U. S. Naval Academy2.490.1%1st Place
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6.0St. Mary's College of Maryland1.800.1%1st Place
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8.97Hampton University0.690.0%1st Place
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5.38Georgetown University2.040.1%1st Place
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7.89Christopher Newport University1.110.0%1st Place
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9.44Virginia Tech0.470.0%1st Place
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6.68Old Dominion University1.510.1%1st Place
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9.44Virginia Tech0.470.0%1st Place
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14.73American University-1.940.0%1st Place
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12.49William and Mary-0.760.0%1st Place
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13.08University of Maryland-0.970.0%1st Place
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9.48SUNY Maritime College0.490.0%1st Place
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6.79SUNY Maritime College1.440.0%1st Place
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12.62U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.740.0%1st Place
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11.84Catholic University of America-0.380.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Reiter | 34.3% | 25.7% | 17.2% | 10.0% | 6.9% | 3.4% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matt Logue | 17.2% | 17.3% | 16.2% | 14.6% | 12.3% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gray Benson | 12.9% | 14.4% | 15.5% | 14.5% | 14.0% | 10.7% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Katherine Bennett | 6.1% | 8.2% | 10.4% | 8.7% | 9.7% | 12.4% | 11.7% | 11.3% | 8.6% | 6.6% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Elisabeth Kuester | 1.9% | 2.2% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 8.1% | 9.1% | 10.4% | 12.8% | 12.5% | 11.7% | 7.2% | 4.5% | 1.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Macey McCann | 8.4% | 7.9% | 11.8% | 13.3% | 13.5% | 11.7% | 9.7% | 8.7% | 6.1% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 1.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Daniel Hodges | 3.7% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 9.9% | 11.8% | 12.5% | 11.1% | 6.9% | 3.8% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Reid Shanabrook | 1.6% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 9.3% | 10.3% | 10.5% | 12.1% | 14.0% | 9.9% | 5.3% | 2.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Hannah Pokorny | 6.3% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 9.5% | 9.4% | 11.0% | 11.1% | 11.3% | 9.1% | 9.8% | 4.9% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Reid Shanabrook | 1.6% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 9.3% | 10.3% | 10.5% | 12.1% | 14.0% | 9.9% | 5.3% | 2.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Jordan Manowitz | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 4.9% | 7.7% | 17.2% | 58.4% | 0.0% |
| Alba Fernandez | 0.8% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 8.7% | 15.4% | 19.4% | 19.3% | 10.5% | 0.0% |
| Lauren Brown | 0.1% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 4.7% | 7.0% | 9.1% | 13.0% | 14.8% | 24.2% | 16.6% | 0.0% |
| Clara Guarascio | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 10.2% | 12.2% | 14.1% | 12.8% | 8.9% | 6.2% | 2.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Aidan Molesky | 4.2% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 8.4% | 11.1% | 10.5% | 11.5% | 11.3% | 11.4% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 3.3% | 2.0% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Tanner Comer | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 7.0% | 11.0% | 15.7% | 20.5% | 20.0% | 8.7% | 0.0% |
| Alex Walters | 0.2% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 8.7% | 13.4% | 16.6% | 18.1% | 12.1% | 5.0% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.