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📊 Prediction Accuracy
62.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1George Washington University2.68+2.71vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University2.04+2.95vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy2.49+1.00vs Predicted
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4Georgetown University3.38-1.48vs Predicted
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5Virginia Tech0.47+4.03vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland1.80-0.36vs Predicted
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7Hampton University0.69+1.41vs Predicted
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8Old Dominion University1.51-1.62vs Predicted
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9SUNY Maritime College0.49-0.07vs Predicted
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10Catholic University of America-0.38+1.14vs Predicted
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11Virginia Tech0.47-1.97vs Predicted
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12William and Mary-0.76-0.12vs Predicted
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13American University-1.94+0.98vs Predicted
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14University of Maryland-0.33-2.87vs Predicted
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15SUNY Maritime College1.44-8.49vs Predicted
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16U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.74-4.20vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.71George Washington University2.680.2%1st Place
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4.95Georgetown University2.040.1%1st Place
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4.0U. S. Naval Academy2.490.1%1st Place
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2.52Georgetown University3.380.3%1st Place
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9.03Virginia Tech0.470.0%1st Place
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5.64St. Mary's College of Maryland1.800.1%1st Place
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8.41Hampton University0.690.0%1st Place
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6.38Old Dominion University1.510.0%1st Place
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8.93SUNY Maritime College0.490.0%1st Place
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11.14Catholic University of America-0.380.0%1st Place
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9.03Virginia Tech0.470.0%1st Place
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11.88William and Mary-0.760.0%1st Place
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13.98American University-1.940.0%1st Place
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11.13University of Maryland-0.330.0%1st Place
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6.51SUNY Maritime College1.440.0%1st Place
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11.8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.740.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Logue | 18.2% | 16.4% | 18.5% | 14.1% | 11.3% | 9.4% | 6.2% | 3.4% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Macey McCann | 8.5% | 11.9% | 13.2% | 12.5% | 11.8% | 14.0% | 10.9% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 2.8% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gray Benson | 14.7% | 14.5% | 14.9% | 15.9% | 14.6% | 12.1% | 7.5% | 3.3% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jack Reiter | 34.3% | 24.0% | 17.6% | 12.6% | 6.2% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Reid Shanabrook | 1.4% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 11.5% | 14.1% | 15.4% | 10.3% | 7.1% | 3.6% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| Katherine Bennett | 6.9% | 7.0% | 11.0% | 8.7% | 15.0% | 13.2% | 12.4% | 9.5% | 8.4% | 5.4% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Elisabeth Kuester | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 6.7% | 9.4% | 12.2% | 11.7% | 13.3% | 11.4% | 8.7% | 5.7% | 2.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Hannah Pokorny | 4.7% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 9.1% | 10.9% | 10.0% | 12.6% | 11.2% | 12.1% | 8.1% | 3.7% | 2.3% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Clara Guarascio | 1.1% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 11.4% | 13.2% | 14.1% | 13.2% | 12.0% | 5.8% | 2.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Alex Walters | 0.8% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 5.6% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 12.2% | 14.7% | 20.1% | 14.4% | 5.9% | 0.0% |
| Reid Shanabrook | 1.4% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 11.5% | 14.1% | 15.4% | 10.3% | 7.1% | 3.6% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| Alba Fernandez | 0.5% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 8.6% | 9.8% | 12.9% | 15.7% | 22.5% | 13.8% | 0.0% |
| Jordan Manowitz | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 8.3% | 17.0% | 61.9% | 0.0% |
| Jacob Stoner | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 9.3% | 13.2% | 16.2% | 16.7% | 16.0% | 5.7% | 0.0% |
| Aidan Molesky | 4.6% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 9.3% | 11.0% | 10.2% | 11.8% | 14.1% | 10.8% | 8.0% | 4.5% | 2.5% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tanner Comer | 0.4% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 10.5% | 14.9% | 19.2% | 21.8% | 10.8% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.