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📊 Prediction Accuracy
62.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University3.38+1.49vs Predicted
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2George Washington University2.68+1.60vs Predicted
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3Virginia Tech0.47+5.87vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy2.49+0.06vs Predicted
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5Hampton University0.69+3.47vs Predicted
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6Georgetown University2.04-0.93vs Predicted
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7St. Mary's College of Maryland1.80-1.38vs Predicted
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8Old Dominion University1.51-1.67vs Predicted
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9SUNY Maritime College1.44-2.53vs Predicted
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10Virginia Tech0.47-1.13vs Predicted
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11SUNY Maritime College0.49-1.93vs Predicted
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12American University-1.94+1.83vs Predicted
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13Catholic University of America-0.38-1.70vs Predicted
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14University of Maryland-0.33-2.85vs Predicted
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15William and Mary-0.76-3.12vs Predicted
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16U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.74-4.20vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.49Georgetown University3.380.3%1st Place
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3.6George Washington University2.680.2%1st Place
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8.87Virginia Tech0.470.0%1st Place
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4.06U. S. Naval Academy2.490.1%1st Place
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8.47Hampton University0.690.0%1st Place
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5.07Georgetown University2.040.1%1st Place
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5.62St. Mary's College of Maryland1.800.1%1st Place
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6.33Old Dominion University1.510.1%1st Place
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6.47SUNY Maritime College1.440.0%1st Place
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8.87Virginia Tech0.470.0%1st Place
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9.07SUNY Maritime College0.490.0%1st Place
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13.83American University-1.940.0%1st Place
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11.3Catholic University of America-0.380.0%1st Place
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11.15University of Maryland-0.330.0%1st Place
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11.88William and Mary-0.760.0%1st Place
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11.8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.740.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Reiter | 35.0% | 25.1% | 17.4% | 10.4% | 6.6% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matt Logue | 17.8% | 19.4% | 18.0% | 14.2% | 11.1% | 8.8% | 5.4% | 3.4% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Reid Shanabrook | 2.0% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 11.8% | 11.6% | 15.2% | 12.6% | 9.8% | 7.6% | 2.8% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Gray Benson | 14.2% | 14.6% | 15.9% | 15.8% | 13.4% | 10.5% | 8.4% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Elisabeth Kuester | 2.1% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 10.2% | 12.2% | 13.6% | 11.6% | 10.3% | 5.0% | 2.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Macey McCann | 7.5% | 11.5% | 10.1% | 15.2% | 13.9% | 12.7% | 10.5% | 8.1% | 5.8% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Katherine Bennett | 8.5% | 6.5% | 9.5% | 10.2% | 13.2% | 14.2% | 12.9% | 10.3% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hannah Pokorny | 5.0% | 5.2% | 8.5% | 10.3% | 10.4% | 10.6% | 13.2% | 12.6% | 10.3% | 7.1% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Aidan Molesky | 3.6% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 10.8% | 11.8% | 13.0% | 11.8% | 11.3% | 9.2% | 4.3% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Reid Shanabrook | 2.0% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 11.8% | 11.6% | 15.2% | 12.6% | 9.8% | 7.6% | 2.8% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Clara Guarascio | 1.4% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 4.1% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 14.8% | 12.6% | 13.5% | 11.0% | 7.2% | 3.8% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Jordan Manowitz | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 9.0% | 13.8% | 61.3% | 0.0% |
| Alex Walters | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 5.1% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 12.2% | 15.9% | 18.3% | 15.2% | 7.3% | 0.0% |
| Jacob Stoner | 0.5% | 0.3% | 1.0% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 9.6% | 12.1% | 18.1% | 16.8% | 14.1% | 6.7% | 0.0% |
| Alba Fernandez | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 9.7% | 12.4% | 16.3% | 25.7% | 10.9% | 0.0% |
| Tanner Comer | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 6.0% | 11.4% | 12.8% | 18.3% | 21.8% | 12.1% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.