Race 11A

great-herring-pond-open

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

54.5%
Within 2 Positions
1.8
Avg Position Diff
11
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
John Mason 13.4% 12.7% 12.8% 11.6% 11.8% 11.2% 10.3% 8.4% 5.1% 2.5% 0.4%
Genevieve Lau 16.0% 14.7% 14.6% 13.1% 12.2% 11.3% 7.9% 5.7% 2.9% 1.2% 0.4%
Ted Richardsson 6.8% 7.8% 9.0% 10.0% 10.1% 10.5% 12.3% 12.8% 11.3% 6.8% 2.5%
Isabella Cho 10.4% 11.1% 9.2% 11.6% 12.1% 11.7% 11.4% 9.7% 7.7% 4.3% 0.9%
Ellie Menezes 12.0% 14.1% 12.7% 12.1% 11.8% 12.0% 9.2% 7.3% 5.3% 2.9% 0.5%
Buck Rathbun 21.9% 18.9% 15.8% 14.1% 10.2% 8.0% 5.9% 3.2% 1.4% 0.7% 0.1%
Emilia Perriera 6.5% 6.4% 8.1% 7.9% 7.8% 9.2% 11.9% 12.8% 14.1% 11.9% 3.4%
Aoife Mahoney 5.2% 5.8% 6.6% 7.8% 9.0% 9.4% 11.5% 13.7% 14.8% 11.2% 5.0%
Michael Cunniff 3.9% 4.8% 6.3% 6.8% 7.7% 8.2% 9.9% 12.0% 15.0% 17.7% 7.8%
Owen Peterson 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 1.4% 2.1% 2.7% 3.4% 4.7% 7.2% 14.5% 60.6%
Joseph Gedraitis 2.8% 2.8% 3.7% 3.6% 5.2% 5.8% 6.2% 9.8% 15.2% 26.3% 18.6%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.