Race 1A

central-early-fall-qualifier

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

25.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Jensen McTighe 15.7% 16.2% 15.3% 11.9% 10.9% 8.6% 5.5% 6.6% 4.6% 2.3% 1.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0%
William Gallagher 13.4% 12.7% 11.0% 10.2% 11.1% 9.3% 7.6% 6.7% 6.6% 3.9% 3.4% 1.9% 1.2% 0.6% 0.4% 0.0%
Matthew Roleke 10.4% 9.6% 9.9% 9.5% 10.4% 9.2% 10.7% 8.8% 6.1% 6.2% 3.8% 2.1% 1.8% 0.9% 0.6% 0.0%
Sam Johnsen 12.8% 12.1% 12.4% 12.2% 11.7% 8.9% 8.4% 6.8% 6.3% 3.4% 2.5% 1.6% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Clayton Snyder 13.3% 13.6% 13.8% 13.6% 10.4% 9.0% 7.2% 7.5% 5.6% 2.7% 1.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Madeline DelVescovo 2.9% 2.9% 2.3% 4.0% 5.2% 5.7% 7.5% 6.4% 6.9% 8.6% 8.3% 9.6% 8.4% 9.0% 7.1% 5.2%
Aaron Fairchild 2.8% 3.1% 3.2% 3.8% 3.7% 4.7% 4.2% 5.3% 7.3% 4.7% 9.2% 9.4% 12.6% 10.8% 9.2% 6.0%
William Sunkler 4.0% 3.6% 5.1% 5.6% 6.2% 6.0% 5.9% 7.0% 7.2% 8.8% 11.4% 8.9% 7.6% 6.3% 4.9% 1.5%
Edgard Sanchez 1.0% 2.4% 2.1% 1.9% 2.0% 2.7% 2.4% 3.7% 3.9% 5.5% 6.6% 8.3% 12.5% 11.8% 15.9% 17.3%
Nicholas Papadopoulos 3.9% 5.2% 3.6% 4.2% 4.4% 5.4% 7.2% 7.3% 9.2% 9.9% 11.1% 9.2% 6.7% 6.9% 4.1% 1.7%
Bailey Cornog 8.2% 6.9% 6.5% 8.0% 8.0% 7.4% 7.9% 9.1% 9.0% 9.7% 6.7% 5.0% 3.5% 2.5% 1.5% 0.1%
Christopher Magno 3.1% 3.8% 3.3% 3.7% 3.9% 6.4% 7.0% 6.8% 5.7% 8.3% 8.3% 8.8% 9.2% 10.4% 7.4% 3.9%
Nicholas Manfredi 3.7% 3.3% 6.5% 5.7% 6.1% 6.3% 8.3% 7.1% 8.7% 8.5% 8.1% 9.0% 7.2% 6.4% 4.0% 1.1%
Nina Van De Vaarst 2.7% 2.2% 3.0% 2.9% 3.7% 6.4% 4.5% 6.0% 6.1% 8.2% 7.0% 11.7% 10.8% 9.7% 9.7% 5.4%
Sean Crandall 1.2% 1.6% 1.1% 1.7% 1.3% 2.2% 3.0% 2.7% 3.8% 5.1% 6.3% 7.9% 8.7% 11.4% 19.5% 22.5%
Luke Dunton 0.9% 0.8% 0.9% 1.1% 1.0% 1.8% 2.7% 2.2% 3.0% 4.2% 4.2% 5.4% 8.3% 12.6% 15.6% 35.3%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.