Race 3A

central-early-fall-qualifier

← Back to Regatta

📊 Prediction Accuracy

43.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Jensen McTighe 18.1% 14.2% 14.7% 12.8% 9.0% 9.4% 6.3% 5.3% 5.2% 2.1% 1.4% 0.9% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Sam Johnsen 14.2% 15.1% 11.3% 9.9% 12.1% 8.5% 8.2% 6.1% 5.0% 4.2% 2.5% 1.7% 0.8% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Matthew Roleke 10.0% 8.8% 10.0% 10.6% 9.9% 9.3% 10.1% 8.6% 8.0% 6.1% 2.8% 2.7% 1.3% 1.4% 0.4% 0.0%
Clayton Snyder 13.4% 14.1% 11.9% 12.9% 10.3% 10.0% 7.9% 7.6% 4.9% 3.2% 2.0% 1.1% 0.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Bailey Cornog 6.4% 6.7% 6.7% 8.1% 9.1% 9.2% 8.3% 9.4% 8.5% 7.6% 6.1% 5.6% 4.6% 2.1% 1.3% 0.3%
William Gallagher 11.1% 11.9% 11.6% 10.4% 12.7% 10.3% 6.8% 6.6% 5.7% 3.4% 5.2% 2.4% 1.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
William Sunkler 4.4% 4.9% 3.2% 5.3% 5.7% 5.1% 7.1% 5.6% 8.1% 8.1% 9.4% 9.3% 9.9% 7.9% 4.3% 1.7%
Nicholas Papadopoulos 3.7% 3.9% 5.6% 5.1% 5.2% 7.3% 7.3% 7.2% 7.4% 8.4% 9.4% 9.1% 8.7% 6.6% 4.1% 1.0%
Reid Shanabrook 2.8% 3.0% 3.4% 2.9% 4.0% 5.0% 5.3% 6.1% 6.7% 8.6% 10.9% 9.3% 10.6% 9.6% 7.9% 3.9%
Troy Dittenhofer 3.0% 3.4% 4.4% 3.5% 3.3% 3.7% 5.8% 6.2% 6.2% 9.9% 9.6% 10.3% 11.4% 8.3% 8.4% 2.6%
Madeline DelVescovo 3.2% 3.7% 3.8% 3.6% 5.5% 5.1% 3.7% 7.3% 7.2% 8.3% 8.0% 10.5% 10.1% 9.9% 7.7% 2.4%
Aaron Fairchild 2.5% 2.8% 3.1% 3.7% 3.0% 4.8% 6.8% 6.6% 5.0% 7.7% 8.2% 10.1% 9.5% 12.2% 9.1% 4.9%
Nicholas Manfredi 3.8% 2.8% 6.0% 6.3% 5.6% 5.8% 7.7% 9.1% 9.4% 8.1% 9.4% 7.2% 7.5% 6.6% 3.6% 1.1%
Luke Dunton 0.9% 1.0% 1.2% 1.3% 1.5% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.5% 3.5% 4.4% 7.4% 8.2% 13.1% 23.4% 24.6%
Nina Van De Vaarst 2.3% 3.0% 2.3% 2.8% 2.7% 4.5% 5.4% 4.8% 7.7% 7.8% 8.1% 9.7% 11.0% 12.6% 11.0% 4.3%
Morgan Kelly 0.2% 0.7% 0.8% 0.8% 0.4% 0.5% 1.3% 1.0% 1.5% 3.0% 2.6% 2.7% 4.6% 8.4% 18.3% 53.2%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.