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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
4.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland3.28+7.56vs Predicted
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2George Washington University2.72+8.98vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy3.25+5.74vs Predicted
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4Georgetown University3.81+2.19vs Predicted
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5Old Dominion University2.82+5.25vs Predicted
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6Georgetown University3.38+1.89vs Predicted
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7Georgetown University3.69-0.28vs Predicted
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8Georgetown University3.53-0.71vs Predicted
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9Old Dominion University2.14+4.09vs Predicted
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10George Washington University2.35+2.43vs Predicted
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11Georgetown University3.39-2.90vs Predicted
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12George Washington University2.49+0.08vs Predicted
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13Old Dominion University2.89-3.16vs Predicted
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14St. Mary's College of Maryland2.94-4.52vs Predicted
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15U. S. Naval Academy3.30-6.79vs Predicted
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16St. Mary's College of Maryland3.22-7.27vs Predicted
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17U. S. Naval Academy2.88-6.80vs Predicted
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18St. Mary's College of Maryland2.32-5.82vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.56St. Mary's College of Maryland3.280.1%1st Place
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10.98George Washington University2.720.0%1st Place
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8.74U. S. Naval Academy3.250.1%1st Place
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6.19Georgetown University3.810.1%1st Place
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10.25Old Dominion University2.820.0%1st Place
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7.89Georgetown University3.380.1%1st Place
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6.72Georgetown University3.690.1%1st Place
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7.29Georgetown University3.530.1%1st Place
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13.09Old Dominion University2.140.0%1st Place
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12.43George Washington University2.350.0%1st Place
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8.1Georgetown University3.390.1%1st Place
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12.08George Washington University2.490.0%1st Place
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9.84Old Dominion University2.890.0%1st Place
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9.48St. Mary's College of Maryland2.940.0%1st Place
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8.21U. S. Naval Academy3.300.1%1st Place
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8.73St. Mary's College of Maryland3.220.1%1st Place
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10.2U. S. Naval Academy2.880.0%1st Place
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12.18St. Mary's College of Maryland2.320.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liam McCarthy | 5.3% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 0.9% |
| Andrew Sheerin | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 6.3% |
| Connor Bayless | 6.0% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 2.6% | 1.3% |
| Sean Segerblom | 11.6% | 10.7% | 10.0% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Dreugh Phillips | 4.4% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 5.8% |
| Jack Reiter | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 8.4% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 1.5% |
| JC Hermus | 9.9% | 11.2% | 9.5% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 9.0% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| Andy Reiter | 8.7% | 8.1% | 9.7% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 0.5% |
| Olivia Windemuller | 1.8% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 10.0% | 12.6% | 21.8% |
| Aitana Mendiguren | 2.8% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 7.6% | 9.6% | 9.7% | 12.2% | 14.7% |
| William Logue | 8.3% | 7.3% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 1.6% |
| Derek Poon Tip | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 9.8% | 13.1% | 13.3% |
| Jack Elkin | 4.5% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 5.3% |
| Lewis Cooper | 4.8% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 3.7% |
| Parker Loftus | 6.1% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 1.1% |
| Leo Boucher | 5.6% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 1.9% |
| Maxwell Brill | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 4.5% |
| Joshua Paper | 3.1% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 8.4% | 6.9% | 9.6% | 9.9% | 15.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.