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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.40+4.20vs Predicted
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2Fordham University2.71+5.53vs Predicted
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3Fordham University2.95+3.64vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.40+4.37vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.59-0.57vs Predicted
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6Fordham University2.40+2.56vs Predicted
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7University of Pennsylvania3.12-1.09vs Predicted
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8SUNY Maritime College2.05+1.70vs Predicted
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9Fordham University2.60-1.36vs Predicted
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10University of Pennsylvania2.17-0.34vs Predicted
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11University of Pennsylvania1.86-0.33vs Predicted
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12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.12-2.07vs Predicted
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13SUNY Maritime College0.49+1.71vs Predicted
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14SUNY Maritime College1.18-1.31vs Predicted
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15SUNY Maritime College1.69-3.90vs Predicted
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16SUNY Maritime College2.14-6.43vs Predicted
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17U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.56-5.20vs Predicted
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18U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.74-1.12vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.2Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.400.1%1st Place
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7.53Fordham University2.710.0%1st Place
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6.64Fordham University2.950.1%1st Place
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8.37Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.400.1%1st Place
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4.43Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.590.2%1st Place
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8.56Fordham University2.400.1%1st Place
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5.91University of Pennsylvania3.120.1%1st Place
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9.7SUNY Maritime College2.050.0%1st Place
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7.64Fordham University2.600.1%1st Place
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9.66University of Pennsylvania2.170.0%1st Place
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10.67University of Pennsylvania1.860.0%1st Place
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9.93U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.120.0%1st Place
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14.71SUNY Maritime College0.490.0%1st Place
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12.69SUNY Maritime College1.180.0%1st Place
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11.1SUNY Maritime College1.690.0%1st Place
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9.57SUNY Maritime College2.140.0%1st Place
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11.8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.560.0%1st Place
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16.88U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.740.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hector Guzman | 13.5% | 12.2% | 12.6% | 10.2% | 10.3% | 8.5% | 9.3% | 6.7% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matt Cappetta | 4.6% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 9.1% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 9.1% | 8.1% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Eduardo Mintzias | 8.0% | 8.1% | 10.3% | 8.7% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Pierre Thibodeau | 5.0% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 3.2% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| Charles Miller | 20.0% | 15.5% | 11.4% | 11.4% | 10.4% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tucker Hersam | 5.6% | 3.6% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 4.7% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 0.1% |
| Joseph LaForgia | 10.4% | 12.1% | 8.2% | 10.2% | 9.0% | 9.9% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Juan Lejarraga | 4.1% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 9.3% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 2.9% | 0.4% |
| Brad Seferian | 5.4% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 9.1% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 3.6% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Porter Killian | 4.9% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 2.0% | 0.3% |
| Tanner Probst | 3.2% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 9.6% | 11.0% | 7.9% | 5.0% | 1.4% |
| Garrett Lawlor | 3.2% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 4.3% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 9.4% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 3.0% | 0.6% |
| Clara Guarascio | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 12.3% | 34.1% | 16.0% |
| William Sesack | 2.0% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 11.6% | 15.3% | 15.2% | 5.6% |
| Hunter Kahler | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 10.9% | 10.1% | 6.7% | 1.4% |
| John Lawless | 3.8% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 3.0% | 0.8% |
| Adam Krzeszowski | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 2.3% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 9.3% | 11.4% | 13.2% | 10.4% | 2.5% |
| Tanner Comer | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 4.2% | 13.0% | 70.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.